USD/CAD Price Analysis: Recovery faces resistance at 1.3200, as the downtrend remains intact

• Despite a recovery of 0.78% from its year-to-date (YTD) low of 1.3092, the USD/CAD remains below the intermediate resistance level of 1.3243.
• USD/CAD's first resistance would emerge at the 50-day EMA at 1.3293, on its way toward 1.3400.
• The pair key support levels lie at 1.3146, and YTD low at 1.3092.

USD/CAD recovers some ground during the North American session, up 0.20% but is struggling to break above solid resistance levels, impeding the pair from conquering the 1.3200 figure. The USD/CAD is trading at 1.3192 after hitting a daily low of 1.3146.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The USD/CAD daily chart portrays the pair as downward biased. However, since reaching a new year-to-date (YTD) low of 1.3092 on July 14, it enjoyed a recovery of 0.78%. Yet, it remains below the July 18 swing high of 1.3243, which is seen as an intermediate resistance level that, once broken, could pave the way for further upside.

If the above scenario plays out, the first resistance would be the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3293 before breaking 1.3300 on its way to the confluence of the 200 and 100-day EMAs at 1.3362/1.3366. Upside risks lie at 1.3400.

Nevertheless, the path of least resistance for the USD/CAD is downwards, cushioned on the upside by the 20-day EMA at 1.3214. That said, the USD/CAD first support would be the weekly low of 1.3146, followed by the July 20 swing low of 1.3119. A breach of the latter will expose the YTD low of 1.3092.

USD/CAD Price Action – Daily chart