USD/INR Price Analysis: Indian Rupee bears need acceptance from 82.20 and Fed

• USD/INR struggles to defend the bounce off 14-week low, indecisive of late.
• Bearish MACD signals, sustained trading below key DMAs, trend line favor Indian Rupee buyers.
• Convergence of 100, 200 DMA challenge pair buyers, 81.50 appears a tough nut to crack for bears.

USD/INR lacks clear directions as it seesaws near 81.90 amid early Wednesday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair fails to extend the previous day’s recovery from an 11-week low, as well as an upward-sloping support line from mid-April.

While justifying the pair’s latest inaction, the MACD indicator flashes bearish signals and the RSI (14) line is also steady. That said, the quote’s sustained trading below the key moving averages, as well as a three-week-old descending trend line, adds strength to the downside bias about the USD/INR pair.

However, a clear break of the 14-week-long support line, close to 81.80 at the latest, becomes necessary for the USD/INR bears to retake control.

Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its January-February run-up, around 81.70, may check the Indian Rupee buyers before directing them to the key support zone comprising multiple levels marked since early February, close to 81.50.

Meanwhile, a convergence of the 10-DMA and a downward-sloping trend line from early July together restricts the immediate USD/INR upside near the 82.00 round figure.

Even if the quote remains firmer past 82.00, a convergence of the 100 and 200 DMAs, around 82.15-20 at the latest, will be a tough nut to crack for the USD/INR bulls.

Apart from the technical pattern challenging the momentum traders, the market’s cautious mood ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy moves also restrict the USD/INR moves of late.

USD/INR: Daily chart

Trend: Limited recovery expected