US Dollar Index: DXY struggles below 102.00 on mixed mood ahead of US ISM Manufacturing PMI

• US Dollar Index bulls approach 102.00 hurdle as market sentiment dwindles.
• Challenges to risk, Fed survey favor DXY bulls but pre-data anxiety, month-start positioning for US NFP prod US Dollar upside.
• Final readings of US S&P Global PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI eyed for clear directions.

US Dollar Index (DXY) remains on the front foot despite recent inaction surrounding 101.90. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus six major currencies benefits from haven appeal ahead of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Apart from the pre-data anxiety, headlines from China and about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) also propel the DXY amid a sluggish Tuesday morning in Asia.

That said, China's Commerce Ministry renews the Sino-US trade war fears by announcing measures to limit exports of some drones and drone-related equipment, starting from September 01, by citing the “national security and interests” late Monday suggests Reuters. On the same line is the Fed’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) which said the US banks reported tighter credit standards and weaker loan demand during the second quarter (Q2 2023).

Also important to observe is the fact that the US Dollar Index (DXY) managed to remain firmer on Monday, grinding higher towards 102.00 by the press time, despite witnessing mixed US data. That said, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index improves to -20.0 for July from -23.2 prior versus -26.3 expected whereas Chicago PMI rose to 42.8 from 41.5 prior versus 43.0 market forecasts. In doing so, the DXY ignores Friday’s softer prints of US inflation clues and the weekend comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s criticism of higher interest rates.

While portraying the mood, S&P500 Futures remain sidelined after posting an upbeat start to the week while the United States Treasury bond yields pick up bids after declining in the last two consecutive days.

Moving on, the DXY traders should pay attention to the risk catalyst and China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July for immediate directions ahead of the final readings of the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI for July. Also important to watch will be the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for the said month. It’s worth observing the inflation and employment clues from the scheduled data will be eyed closely for clear directions.

Technical analysis

Although a fortnight-old rising support line defends the US Dollar Index (DXY) bulls until the quote stays beyond 101.65, a convergence of the 100-DMA and a two-month-old resistance line, close to 102.40 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the US Dollar Index (DXY) bulls.