Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears stay hopeful below $1,955 – Confluence Detector

• Gold Price portrays corrective bounce at multi-day low as market prepares for US employment data.
• Retreat in US Treasury bond yields from worrisome levels adds strength to XAU/USD rebound.
• China stimulus talks, mixed US data also keep Gold buyers hopeful but economic fears, hawkish Fed concerns challenge XAU/USD upside.
• Strong US NFP and CPI needed to confirm September Fed rate hike and propel Gold Price toward $1,955 hurdle.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) remains mildly bid as it consolidates previous losses amid pre-NFP positioning. Also allowing the Gold Price to remain mildly bid are the headlines suggesting China stimulus and a pullback in the US Treasury bond yields from the highest level since November 2022. It’s worth noting that the recently mixed US job and activity signals haven’t been impressive to the US Dollar bulls, which in turn allow the XAU/USD to grind higher after taking a U-turn from the three-week low.

Previously, the US policymakers rush to defend the Treasury bonds after Fitch Ratings cut the US credit ratings to AA+ from AAA. The same joined the ongoing US-China tension, as well as fears of softer economic growth in China, to weigh on the sentiment and the XAU/USD.

Looking forward, softer prints of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and other US employment numbers will need support from the next week’s US inflation clues to defend the Gold Price recovery. Apart from that, China's headlines and bond market moves will also be important to watch for clear directions.

Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD could resume downtrend on strong US jobs data

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

Our Technical Confluence indicator suggests that the Gold Price prods the immediate upside hurdle surrounding $1,935-35, comprising Fibonacci 61.8% on one-day and one-month, as well as the middle band of the Bollinger on the hourly chart.

Following that, Pivot Point one-day R1 and Pivot Point one-day R3 could check the Gold buyers near $1,940 and $1,948 respectively.

However, the Gold buyers remain cautious unless witnessing a clear upside break of convergence of the Fibonacci 23.6% on one-week, close to $1,955, quickly followed by the Fibonacci 38.2% on one-month, close to $1,958.

Meanwhile, the Pivot Point one-day S1 restricts the immediate downside of the Gold Price near $1,930.

However, major attention will be given to the confluence of the lower band of a Bollinger on the daily chart, as well as Pivot Point one-week S2, near $1,922.

In a case where the XAU/USD remains bearish past $1,922, the $1,915 support encompassing Pivot Point one-month S1 will act as the final defense of the buyers before directing the Gold sellers toward the $1,900 round figure.

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About Technical Confluences Detector

The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.