Fed’s Harker: We may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady

I bet what you want to know is what we are going to do next. Unfortunately, I do not know — it depends on what the data will tell us from now to our next meeting in September.

Ten days ago, the latest PCE inflation report showed continued disinflation year over year on the headline measure and promise on the core measure. We are making progress against inflation. It has been slow progress, and I am watchful of any reemerging price pressures. We remain unwavering in our commitment to bring inflation back to target.

 I expect core PCE inflation to decline to a rate perhaps just below 4 percent year over year by the end of 2023, before falling below 3 percent next year and leveling out at our 2 percent target in 2025.

I expect only a modest slowdown in economic activity to go along with a slow but sure disinflation. In other words, I do see us on the flight path to the soft landing we all hope for and that has proved quite elusive in the past.

Absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September, I believe we may be at the point where we can be patient and hold rates steady and let the monetary policy actions we have taken do their work.

 Should we be at that point where we can hold steady, we will need to be there for a while.