AUD/USD Forecast: More losses likely while under 0.6500

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6482

• Australian Wage Price Index is due on Tuesday; RBA will release minutes. 
• The US Dollar remains strong support by higher US Yields. 
• The bias remains to the downside for AUD/USD, however, some consolidation ahead seems likely. 

The AUD/USD pair bottomed on Monday at 0.6454, reaching the lowest intraday level since November. It then rebounded toward 0.6500. However, the pair remains under pressure due to the strength of the US Dollar. Tuesday is expected to be a busy day, with important economic data releases from both Australia and the US.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the meeting minutes. No surprises are expected. In that meeting, the RBA decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 4.10% to assess the impact of monetary tightening and the economic outlook. Additionally, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the Wage Price Index for the second quarter, which is expected to remain at 3.7%. Market participants will also pay attention to Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales data.

The US Dollar peaked on Monday at monthly highs and then the rally lost momentum. Following last week's data, market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates further. However, the US Dollar holds firm. The performance of the US economy remains one of the key drivers. On Tuesday, US Retail Sales figures are scheduled to be released.
If market sentiment improves, the Aussie could benefit. However, an upbeat report from the US could reignite the Greenback's rally. It is worth noting that the US Dollar has been strengthening for more than a week and may require additional catalysts to sustain its upward trend.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD dropped for the fifth consecutive day on Monday. However, it finished far from the highs, indicating a potential for consolidation in the coming hours. The US Dollar has lost momentum but the overall trend remains firm, and the pair is likely to see fresh lows if it stays below 0.6500.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in a range between 0.6450 and 0.6500. The support at 0.6450 has been tested twice and held. A break below this level could trigger a bearish acceleration targeting the 0.6400 area. Currently, technical indicators do not strongly suggest more losses, but there are also no signs of a bullish correction. A move above 0.6500 would alleviate the bearish pressure. A dynamic resistance (downtrend line) is anticipated at 0.6555.

Support levels: 0.6450 0.6420 0.6395

Resistance levels: 0.6510 0.6540 0.6570

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