USD/CAD jumps near multi-month highs after US and Canadian data

• The pair is about to reach overbought conditions, trading around the 1.3500 zone, showing more than 0.30% of daily gains.
• Canadian’s CPI came in higher than expected, while US Retail Sales showed strong figures.
• Lower Oil prices limited the CAD’s potential.

The USD/CAD saw green on Tuesday and increased near highs since early June, trading around 1.3500. On the one hand, the optimistic US Retail Sales from July made the market discount a more aggressive bet by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and favoured the USD. On the other hand, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from July came in higher than expected, favouring the Canadian dollar, while lower Oil prices limited the upside potential.

Canadian CPI from July came in higher than expected, as well as US Retail sales

Canadian inflation for July came in hot. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), advanced 0.3% Mom while the annualised measure accelerated to 3.2%, higher than the 3% expected and the previous 2.8%.  The Core figure rose to 3.2% vs the 2.8% expected from the last 2.8%.

Regarding the next Bank of Canada (BoC), according to the World Interest Rate Possibilities (WIRP) tool, markets discount high odds of a 25% chance of a hike on September 6 and then increase to approximately 55% by October 25. Looking further ahead, it climbs to about 60% by December 6. In that sense, hawkish bets on the BoC may support the CAD in the following sessions.

On the other hand, July’s US Retail Sales exceeded expectations. The headline rose by 0.7% MoM, higher than the 0.4% expected. Sales Excluding the Automobile sector also met expectations and came in at 1% vs the 0.4% expected. The USD gained some momentum as a reaction, but the DXY traded relatively flat during the session.  With that said, attention now turns to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes released scheduled for Wednesday, where investors will look for clues regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next steps. As for now, the stronger case, according to the CME FedWatch tool, is that the Fed will skip in September and then hike in November by 25 basis points (bps)

USD/CAD Levels to watch

According to the daily chart analysis, short-term prospects for USD/CAD look bullish. Both Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remain positive and are near overbought conditions. Moreover, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), indicating that the buyers command the broader perspective.

Support levels: 1.3450 (200-day SMA), 1.3400, 1.3380 (100-day SMA).

Resistance levels: 1.3510, 1.3550, 1.3570.

USD/CAD Daily chart