GBP/JPY consolidates near 186.20 after moderate Japanese trade data, UK Retail Sales eyed

• GBP/JPY achieved a historical peak on the back of better-than-expected UK inflation data.
• Japan’s trade data could cap the upward movement of the GBP/JPY pair.
• Traders await UK Retail Sales, seeking fresh impetus to place new bets on GBP/JPY pair.

GBP/JPY achieved a historical peak of 186.41 during the early trading hours in the Asian session on Thursday. Currently, the pair hovers around 186.20 as it seeks to extend its ongoing winning streak. The British Pound (GBP) is showing strength against the Japanese Yen (JPY), primarily driven by better-than-expected inflation figures originating from the United Kingdom (UK) on Wednesday.

This resilient economic data could amplify the concerns over interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) in the September meeting. That said, UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) (MoM) printed the figure of -0.4% for the month of July against the expected -0.5% and 0.1% prior. At the annual rate, the CPI posted a reading of 6.8% same as anticipated, against the 7.9% previously. Core CPI remained consistent at the rate of 6.9%, against the expected 6.8%.

On the other hand, the Reuters Tankan, a quarterly survey outlining the business sentiment among Japanese companies, was revealed on Wednesday. This dataset contributed to the strength of the Japanese Yen (JPY) as it indicated improvements in both Large Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing sentiments. Additionally, there is ongoing market speculation concerning the potential intervention by Japanese authorities to protect the Japanese currency from further appreciation against the US Dollar (USD). Such intervention could significantly impact the price movement of GBP/JPY, influencing its overall price action.

Furthermore, the moderate trade data released from Japan on Thursday might serve as a limiting factor, potentially capping the upward movement of the GBP/JPY pair. Japan's year-on-year exports experienced a contraction, with the reading declining to -0.3% from the previous 1.5% in July. This result was better than the projected decline of -0.8%. At the same time, year-on-year imports also declined, reaching -13.5% in July. This figure was slightly better than the expected reading of -14.7%, representing a decrease from the previous reading of -12.9%.

Market participants will closely observe the upcoming data release scheduled for Friday. In the Japanese economic calendar, particular attention will be directed toward the National Consumer Price Index. Likewise, there will be a focus on Retail Sales data from the UK. These data releases are expected to offer valuable insights into the economic outlook of Japan and the UK, potentially influencing trading decisions involving the GBP/JPY pair.