Natural Gas Price Analysis: Bounces off 200-SMA despite risk aversion, firmer US Dollar

• Natural Gas rebounds from weekly low, snaps two-day losing streak.
• Hawkish Fed Minutes, economic woes underpin US Dollar strength and prod commodity buyers.
• 100-SMA, bearish MACD signals check corrective bounce; rising support line from early June adds to additional downside filters.

Natural Gas Price (XNG/USD) ignores firmer US Dollar and the risk-off mood to post the first daily gains so far in three days amid early Thursday. In doing so, the energy instrument bounces off the 200-SMA while printing mild gains to around $2.73 by the press time.

Also read: S&P500 Futures drop to five-week low, yields refresh yearly top on hawkish Fed Minutes, global economic woes

It’s worth noting, however, that the 100-SMA and the bearish MACD signals join the broad pessimism about the energy market to challenge the XNG/USD buyers around $2.74.

Even if the Natural Gas buyers manage to cross the 100-SMA hurdle, the XNG/USD buyers will be cautious as a downward-sloping resistance line from August 10, close to $2.84 at the latest, will challenge the quote’s further run-up.

Following that, a horizontal area comprising the late July tops and the monthly high, surrounding $2.93–94, will precede the monthly peak of $3.07 to prod the bulls.

On the other hand, a downside break of the 200-SMA support of $2.69 will direct the XNG/USD sellers toward an upward-sloping support line from June 01, near $2.57 at the latest.

In a case where the Natural Gas sellers keep the reins past $2.57, the monthly low of $2.50 will be in danger.

Natural Gas Price: Four-hour chart

Trend: Pullback expected