Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD corrects oversold conditions, limited by rising US yields

• XAG/USD surged to a daily high of $23.00 and settled near $22.60.
• DXY rose to its highest level since January at 103.60.
• The US 10-year benchmark Treasury yield rose to October 2022 highs.

On Thursday, the XAG/USD seems to be correcting oversold conditions rising to $23.00 and settling at $22.60. That said, hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) are fuelling US treasury bond yields, limiting Silver’s upside.

Following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the July meeting, markets are confident that the Fed will hike in September and November. In line with that, the minutes showed that the members were concerned with the upside risks of inflation and left the door open for another hike.

Those remarks fueled US bond yields, often seen as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals. The US 10-year bond rate to its highest level since October 2022 at 4.28%, while the other shorter-term yields stand at monthly highs with the 2 and 5-year rates at 4.98% and 4.46%, respectively. As for now, according to the CME FedWatch tool, investors discount that the Fed will pause in September and then bet on 40% odds of a 25 basis point (bps) hike in November.

XAG/USD Levels to watch

The technical analysis of the daily chart points to a neutral to a bearish outlook for XAG/USD, indicating the potential for further bearish movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a neutral stance below its midline, displaying a flat slope in the negative territory, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) shows stagnant red bars. Furthermore, the pair is below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), suggesting that the bears are firmly in control of the bigger picture.

Support levels: $22.50, $22.30, $22.00. 

Resistance levels: $22.80, $23.00, $23.15.

XAG/USD Daily chart