AUD/USD to retest 0.6460 hurdle as US Dollar eases ahead of PMI data

• AUD/USD edges higher amid four-day winning streak, reverses pullback from intraday top of late.
• China-linked optimism, softer Treasury bond yields underpin Aussie pair’s rebound despite downbeat Australia PMI.
• Cautious optimism adds strength to recovery moves toward May’s low.
• Upbeat prints of US S&P Global PMIs, one-month-old descending resistance line can challenge AUD/USD rebound.

AUD/USD stays on the front foot for the fourth consecutive day, despite struggling of late, as market players cheer the downbeat US Dollar amid early Wednesday morning in Europe. With this, the Aussie pair adds 0.30% intraday gains to print the 0.6450 level by the press time.

Among the key catalysts, the market’s cautious optimism and a pullback in the US Treasury bond yields gain major attention. It’s worth noting, however, that the downbeat prints of Australia’s preliminary readings of the S&P Global PMIs for August cap the AUD/USD pair’s immediate upside.

That said, the headlines suggest a likely improvement in the US–China ties, due to US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s visit to Beijing, scheduled for next week. On the same line are the early-week news suggesting the US removal of 27 Chinese entities from its Unverified List, lifting sanctions from those entities and flagging hopes of improving diplomatic ties.

On the other hand, mixed US data and Fed talks also prod the DXY bulls as market participants don’t expect the hawkish appearance of Fed Chair Jerome Powell at this week’s annual Jackson Hole event. That said, the US flashed slight improvement in the US Existing Home Sales for July and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for August, which in turn should entertain the AUD/USD sellers. However, hawkish statements from Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin put a floor under the pair.

While portraying the mood, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields keep the previous day’s retreat from the highest level since late 2007 to 4.31% whereas S&P500 Futures rise 0.25% intraday to regain 4,410 level after reversing from a one-week high the previous day. Further, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from the 10-week high marked the previous day to around 103.50 at the latest.

Looking forward, the preliminary readings of the August month Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) and Existing Home Sales for July for the US will entertain the AUD/USD pair traders. However, top-tier central bankers’ speeches at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium event, scheduled for August 24–26, will be crucial for clear directions.

Technical analysis

The nearly oversold RSI (14) on the daily chart joins the weekly ascending support line, close to 0.6405, to inspire AUD/USD buyers in approaching May’s low of around 0.6460. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from late June, close to 0.6480 at the latest, can challenge the Aussie pair’s further upside.