USD/MXN in freefall for fifth straight day as US PMIs weaken

• USD/MXN is down 0.48%, trading at 16.8260, as disappointing S&P Global PMIs weigh on the greenback.
• US Treasury bond yields slump, with the 10-year note dropping ten basis points to 4.22%, further pressuring the USD.
• Mexican inflation data awaited on Thursday; USD/MXN remains bearish but Powell's speech could be a game-changer.

USD/MXN plunges for the fifth straight day after economic data from the United States (US) could prevent the US Federal Reserve from tightening monetary conditions, as business activity deteriorated, according to S&P Global. Hence, the USD/MXN trades at 16.8260, down 0.48%, after hitting a daily high of 16.9151.

US equities rise on NVIDIA earnings hopes; investors eye Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for rate clues

US equities are trading in the green on expectations of NVIDIA earnings reports and US S&P Global PMIs for August. The S&P Global Composite PMI compounded by Manufacturing and Services PMIs fell to 50.4 from July 52 and below estimates of 52. The manufacturing index dived deeper into contractionary territory at 47 from 49 July and forecasts of 49.3, while the services component clings to expansionary territory at 51, also missing estimates of 52.2.

Other data on the housing market witnessed New Home Sales for July on MoM came at 4.4%, exceeding the prior month’s data of -2.8%.

In the meantime, a US government report revealed that US Nonfarm Payrolls through March would probably be revised down by 306,000, smaller than analysts’ estimates of 500,000.

US Treasury bond yields remain depressed along the whole yield curve as the 10-year Treasury Note collapses ten basis points, from 4.321% to 4.22%, weighing on the greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge that measures the buck’s value against a basket of peers, drops 0.21% at 103.380.

On the Mexican front, the economic agenda would remain empty until Thursday, when the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) will reveal inflation figures for the first half of August, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimated at 4.67% on YoY, while monthly figures are expected at 0.28%. Core CPI is projected to slow down but remain stickier than expected.

Given the backdrop, USD/MXN remains bearishly biased and ready to test the yearly lows. However, the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to rock the boat. Investors estimate the Fed would stick to its higher-for-longer commitment and talk down the chances of interest rate cuts.

USD/MXN Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a technical standpoint, the USD/MXN is downward biased, set to re-test the year-to-date (YTD) low of 16.6238, which, once cleared, the pair would continue towards the October 2015 low of 16.3267. Conversely, if USD/MXN edges back toward the confluence of the 20/50-day Moving Average (DMA) at 17.0000, that could pave the way for further upside. Next would be the last week’s high of 17.2073, followed by the 100-DMA at 17.3862.

USD/MXN Price Action - Daily chart