AUD/USD fades recovery near 0.6450 ahead of Governor Lowe’s final RBA decision

• AUD/USD struggles to defend the week-start gains ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision.
• Country Garden news, China stimulus put a floor under Aussie price despite mixed data at home.
• US holiday offered a dull start to the week comprising RBA, Australia Q2 GDP.
• RBA is expected to keep interest rates unchanged but Lowe’s last speech as Governor will be important to watch.

AUD/USD portrays the pre-event anxiety as it stays defensive around the mid-0.6400s during the early hours of Tuesday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair fails to extend the week-start gains backed by headlines from China, as well as surrounding Country Garden, as market players braces for the key Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision. The event becomes more important as it is the last ruling from Governor Philip Lowe before he hands over the control to Michele Bullock. Apart from the RBA, China Caixin Services PMI and the US Factory Orders also become important to watch for clear directions.

The risk-barometer pair witnessed an upbeat start to the week, despite posting mild gains, after marking the first positive weekly close in seven, as market players cheer the receding odds of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish move together with China stimulus. Adding strength to the optimism could be the news from China’s biggest private reality firm Country Garden.

China’s readiness for opening up the services industry, as well as developments of the manufacturing activities, joins a slew of measures to cut mortgage rates and infuse more liquidity to underpin the AUD/USD upside. Further, the optimism about China’s struggling reality firm Country Garden, after it managed to gain approval from creditors to delay the debt payments of around 3.9 billion Yuan ($536 million), also keeps the AUD/USD buyers hopeful.

Further, the market’s bets on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) status quo in September contrasts with a recent improvement in the odds favoring a rate hike during late 2023 seems to prod the AUDUSD Price even as the US Dollar remains depressed. That said, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta J. Mester defended the US central bank’s hawkish move and ruled out the rate cut bias in her speech on Friday.

On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), the August numbers initially renewed hawkish bias about the Fed, even if the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings kept the policy pivot concerns on the table afterward. Following that, the global rating agency Moody’s revised up the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) predictions for 2023 to 1.9% versus 1.1% expected in May.

At home, Australia’s TD Securities Index slide to 0.2% MoM from 0.8% prior but improved to 6.1% YoY versus 5.4% previous readings. Further, the ANZ Job Advertisements rose to 1.9% from 0.4% but the Company Gross Operating Profits for the second-quarter (Q2) of 2023 slumped to -13.1% compared to 0.5% previous gains.

Amid these plays, the market sentiment remained mildly positive and put a floor under the AUD/USD pair. However, the cautious mood ahead of the RBA Interest Rate Decision and tomorrow’s Australia Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) challenge the pair traders.

As per the latest Reuters poll, , “The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its key interest rate unchanged at 4.10% on Tuesday as inflation shows signs of easing,” per the August 30 – September 1 poll of 35 economist by Reuters. The survey finding also mentioned that the respondents largely expect a final hike next quarter.

While the Aussie central bank is mostly certain to keep the rates unchanged at 4.10%, attention will be on the RBA Statement’s tone for clear directions of future rate hikes, which in turn may help the AUD/USD to stay firmer.

Following that, China’s Caixin Services PMI for August, as well as the US Factory Orders for the said month, will be important to watch for clear directions.

Technical analysis

AUD/USD remains on the bear’s radar unless providing a clear upside break of the 0.6500 hurdle comprising multiple levels marked in late June and early July, which in turn highlights a 13-day-old rising support line of around 0.6430 to watch during the quote’s pullback.