USD/CHF reverses week-start losses around mid-1.2800s as US Dollar traces firmer yields

• USD/CHF picks up bids to refresh intraday high, reverses the previous day’s pullback from one-week high.
• Softer Swiss GDP growth contrasts with upbeat US NFP, firmer yields to keep pair buyers hopeful.
• US Factory Orders, risk catalysts may entertain intraday traders.

USD/CHF renews its intraday high around 0.8855 while reversing the week-start losses amid early Tuesday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair takes clues from the US Dollar recovery, as well as the previous day’s downside Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) of 2023.

US Dollar Index (DXY) prints mild gains around 104.25, after pausing a two-day uptrend the previous day, as it traces the firmer US Treasury bond yields ahead of the key US data. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rise three basis points (bps) to 4.21% after a holiday-driven inaction.

Apart from the yields, the US Dollar’s latest rebound could also be linked to Friday’s mostly upbeat US jobs report and hawkish Fed talks, as well as the challenges to sentiment emanating from China.

That said, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) renewed hawkish bias about the Fed, even if the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings kept the policy pivot concerns on the table afterward. Following that, the global rating agency Moody’s revised up the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) predictions for 2023 to 1.9% versus 1.1% expected in May.

Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta J. Mester defended the US central bank’s hawkish move and ruled out the rate cut bias in her speech on Friday. That said, the market’s bets on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) status quo in September contrasts with a recent improvement in the odds favoring a rate hike during late 2023.

Furthermore, the market’s lack of confidence in the Chinese measures to defend the economy, as well as the recent Sino-American tensions over Taiwan and the US businesses’ discomfort in Beijing, prod the market sentiment and put a floor under the US Dollar.

On the other hand, Swiss Q2 GDP growth eased to 0.0% QoQ and 0.5% YoY versus 0.3% and 1.5% respective priors.

To sum up, the USD/CHF run-up appears legitimate and may keep the buyers on the table. However, today’s US Factory Orders for July and the headlines about China, as well as the Fed concerns, will be important to watch for clear directions.

Technical analysis

USD/CHF buyers remain hopeful unless they witness a clear downside break of the six-month-old previous resistance line, now support around 0.8810.