USD/INR hovers around 82.80 amid market optimism due to Chinese measures

• USD/INR trades sideways as China’s stimulus reinforces the positivity in the market.
• China’s Country Garden made an agreement with creditors for an extension, undermining the US Dollar (USD).
• Traders expect no interest rate hike in the September meeting by the Fed.

USD/INR hovers around 82.80 during the Asian session on Tuesday, struggling to continue the mild gains on the second day. United States (US) modest employment data reinforced the likelihood of no interest rate change by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the September meeting.

However, the bets are now on a 25 basis points (bps) rate hike in December, 2023. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta J. Mester advocated for the Fed’s hawkish tone and denied the odds of a bias toward rate cuts in a speech on Friday.  Market participants await the US Factory Orders (Jul) to gain clear insights into the inflation and economic scenarios.

Analysts at MUFG Bank anticipate that the USD/INR pair will remain at 82.70 by the end of the third quarter and then decline to 81.50 by the end of the first quarter of 2024. Their short-term outlook for the Indian Rupee is neutral. Analysts also mentioned some headwinds for the Indian Rupee in the near term due to the higher inflation recorded in July than anticipated. They also suggested that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should hold the hawkish stance for a prolonged period.

US Dollar Index (DXY), which compares the Greenback against six other major currencies, trades higher around 104.20 at the time of writing. The moderate labor growth in August and the recovery in US Treasury yields helped the buck to maintain its strength.

The safe-haven Greenback was under pressure as improved market optimism due to China's stimulus measures and the agreement between Country Garden and creditors for an extension on onshore debt repayments worth 3.9 billion yuan ($536 million). The positive sentiment in the market could support the Asian currencies including the Indian Rupee. Furthermore, Chinese Authorities plan to ease home-purchase restrictions to support economic growth.