NZD/USD struggling to move past 0.5900 with US CPI around the corner

• The NZD/USD is swamped near 0.5900, unable to develop meaningful momentum.
• It's the USD's ballgame as investors look ahead to key US inflation figures on Wednesday.
• The Federal Reserve looks set to step back from the rate hike cycle as long as inflation continues to ease.

The NZD/USD pair is struggling to find firmer footing after slipping to the 0.5900 level through Tuesday’s market session, dipping from the day’s high of 0.5923 as the US Dollar (USD) takes a step higher against the Kiwi (NZD).

It’s strictly a low-impact showing for the NZD on the economic calendar this week. Food Price Index and Business Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures are not expected to draw much market reaction, and it will be up to the Greenback (USD) side of things to push momentum.

US inflation figures keyed up for the midweek, CPI to set the tone

Investors are looking forward to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures due on Wednesday. Market participants broadly believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause on further rate hikes at their upcoming meeting in September, however, expectations could swing if the CPI print surprises to the upside. Investors expect the CPI for August to show a 0.5% annualized rise in prices, mostly in the cost of energy and fuel, with the core CPI forecast to hold steady at 0.2%.

Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen declared her optimism that the US could successfully control inflation without any damage to the employment market. Yellen also noted that inflation indicators across the board have been declining recently, and there has yet to be any sign of a wave of layoffs.

NZD/USD technical outlook

The Kiwi is mostly flat on the week’s opening prices near 0.5900, but the NZD/USD pair is notably on the downside of recent action, having closed in the red for seven of the last eight consecutive trading weeks. Kiwi bulls are struggling to lift the pair from the year’s lows near 0.5860, and sustained selling pressure will send the NZD tumbling back to 2022’s lows near the 0.5600 handle.

Hourly candles have the pair trying to build a rally from the day’s lows near 0.5890, but 0.5900 appears to be a significant level to overcome, with 0.5980 waiting further above and acting as a ceiling for near-term momentum.

The 4-hour candle overview shows the NZD/USD pairing on the low end, struggling to hold onto near-term consolidation levels. Despite the bearish stance, higher lows are marked in for September, and Kiwi bidders will be looking to build up enough momentum to grab ahold of the 0.6000 handle.

NZD/USD 4-hour chart