USD/SEK reversed its multi-month-high rally ahead of eventful week

• USD/SEK soared to 11.249, its highest since early November 2022.
• Riskbank is expected to hike 25 bps to 4%.
• The Fed will likely deliver a hawkish pause.

The USD/SEK saw volatility on Monday, rising to a high since November 4, 2022, then settling at 11.122, securing daily losses. The USD trading somewhat soft, and the Krona holding its ground ahead of one last hike by the Riksbank on Thursday contributed to the pair movements.

In line with that, markets are confident that the Riksbank will deliver its last hike of 25 bps of its tightening cycle to 4%. The Swedish bank will also release updated macro forecasts, and Governor Thedeen will be on the wires on Friday. For the rest of the year, investors are discounting that there won’t be any more hikes and that the policy rate will peak at 4.05% in Q2 2024.

On the Fed’s side, markets practically priced in a pause on Wednesday but a hawkish one. The bank will likely try to convince markets that the policy will still depend on incoming data and will leave the door open for further hikes. In the meantime, according to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are placing 35% odds on one last hike of 25 bps in November or December, but those odds will rise and fall according to the outcome of the incoming data.

In addition, the Fed will release an updated macro forecast and revised dot plot, which will likely set the pace of the USD price dynamics and the expectations for the upcoming meetings.

USD/SEK Levels to watch 

 The daily chart highlights a neutral technical outlook for USD/SEK as signs of bullish exhaustion become evident, but still, the pair remains in multi-month highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a decrease in upward momentum with a negative slope above its midline, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) lays out neutral green bars. Furthermore, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating buyers command the broader perspective.

Support levels: 11.0960, 11.0650, 11.0550.
Resistance levels: 11.175, 11.205, 11.249.

USD/SEK Daily Chart