USD/INR Price Analysis: Bulls not ready to give up yet, seem poised to retest record high

• USD/INR regains positive traction on Thursday and recovers a part of the previous day's losses.
• The technical setup remains tilted in favour of bulls and supports prospects for further gains.
• A convincing break below the 100/200-day SMAs confluence would negate the positive bias.

The USD/INR pair attracts fresh buyers near the 82.90 region on Thursday and reverses a part of the previous day's downfall from the 83.30 area, or over a one-month top. Spot prices currently trade just above the 83.00 mark and remain well within the striking distance of the all-time peak touched on August 15.

From a technical perspective, the fact that the USD/INR pair is holding comfortably above technically significant 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) favours bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are holding in the positive territory and are still far from being in the overbought one. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside.

Hence, a subsequent strength beyond the overnight swing high, around the 83.30 region, en route to the 83.45 area or the YTD high, remains a distinct possibility. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move for the USD/INR pair.

On the flip side, the 82.90-82.80 area, might continue to protect the immediate downside. Any further decline is more likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited near the 82.40-82.30 confluence, comprising the 100-day and the 200-day SMAs. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if broken will make the USD/INR pair vulnerable to accelerate the corrective decline towards the 82.00 mark.

USD/INR daily chart

Technical levels to watch