Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD recovers after US data, outlook still bearish

• After failing to a low of $22.80, the XAG/USD recovered to $23.40.
• US Jobless Claims from the second week of September came in lower than expected.
• Philadelphia’s Fed Manufacturing Index alsocame in lower than expected.
• Higher US yields limit the upside potential of the grey metal.

On Thursday, the XAG/USD Silver Spot price found support at $22.80 and then climbed back to $23.40 On the downside, higher US yields favour a bearish outlook for Silver in the short term, while poor Manufacturing data from the US softened the USD, allowing the metal to find demand.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey is a proxy of manufacturing conditions from September, came in lower than expected at -13.5. On the upside, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending in September 15 of the US came in below the expectations at 201,000, lower than the 225,000 expected and the previous 221,000.

It is worth noticing that, as Chair Powell stated on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will remain data-dependent so that economic figures will set the pace of the US Dollar until the next decision. In addition, the policy statement revealed that most members are seeing an additional hike in 2023, while the projections pushed back cuts from 2024 to September. In that sense, expectations of higher rates for a longer time fueled US bond yield, limiting the XAG/USD upside potential.

In the meantime, the 2-year yield stands at 5.14% while the 5 and 10-year rates at 4.60% and 4.46%, all three in multi-year highs. The Greenback, measured by the DXY index, retreated from it highest level since March 9 of 105.73 towards 105.40 following the data and allowed the XAG/USD to gather some momentum.

XAG/USD Levels to watch 

 Analyzing the daily chart, a bearish outlook is seen for the short term regarding XAG/USD despite indicators turning flat. The metal is below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), pointing towards the prevailing strength of the bears in the larger context; those averages are about to perform a bearish cross at the $23.50 area.

 Support levels: $23.00, $22.80, $22.50.

 Resistance levels: $23.50 (20,100 and 200-day SMA convergence), $23.70, $24.00

XAG/USD Daily Chart