Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD advances above $23 as US Core PCE softens

• Silver price rises swiftly to near $23.20 as US core PCE remains softer-than-anticipated.
• US monthly core PCE inflation grew at a nominal pace of 0.1% while the annual data softened to 3.9%.
• Silver price rebounds strongly from the neckline of the H&S chart pattern to near the 20-DEMA.

Silver price rallies $23.20 as the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis reports a soft core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index. The monthly Core PCE grew at a nominal pace of 0.1%, slower than expectations and the former pace of 0.2%. The annual core PCE data decelerated to 3.9% as expected against July's reading of 4.3%.

The headline PCE expanded at a higher pace of 0.4% vs. July's reading of 0.2% but slower than expectations of 0.5%. On an annualized basis, the economic data accelerated nominally to 3.5% as expected due to rising energy prices. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) corrects to near 105.80 but the broader bias remains bullish as the US economy has remained resilient. The US economy is performing well on the grounds of inflation, labor market, and consumer spending but factory activity is still a concern for the authorities amid a poor demand outlook.

This week, the Durable Goods Orders data for August unexpectedly rose by 0.2% while investors forecasted a contraction of 0.5%. This indicates that business spending on equipment increases, as investors see the Federal Reserve (Fed) is done with hiking interest rates and the factory outlook, is improving. For more guidance on the current status of the manufacturing sector, investors will focus on the ISM Manufacturing PMI report for September, which will be released on Monday at 14:00 GMT.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price rebounds strongly from the neckline of the Head and Shoulder chart pattern, which is plotted from June 23 low at $22.11. The asset forms an H&S chart pattern on a daily scale, which indicates a prolonged consolidation whose breakdown triggers a bearish reversal. The white metal trades below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $23.15, which indicates that the short-term trend is bearish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) slips below 40.00, indicating no signs of divergence and oversold, warranting more downside.

Silver daily chart