USD/CAD consolidates in a range around mid-1.3600s, downside seems cushioned

• USD/CAD lacks any firm direction and oscillates in a range through the Asian session on Monday.
• The uncertain Fed rate-hike path and a positive risk tone keep the USD bulls on the defensive.
• A modest downtick in Crude Oil prices undermines the Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the major.

The USD/CAD pair struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Monday and oscillates in a narrow trading band, around the 1.3650 area through the first half of the European session.

The US Dollar (USD) kicks off the new week on a subdued note and for now, seems to have stalled the post-US CPI positive move witnessed over the past two trading days. The recent dovish remarks by several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials suggested that the US central bank is poised to leave interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive month in November and nearing the end of its policy-tightening cycle. This, along with a positive tone around the US equity futures, is seen weighing on the safe-haven Greenback and acting as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

The downside for the USD, however, seems limited on the back of expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. The bets were reaffirmed by the latest US consumer inflation figures released last Thursday, which remained above the Fed's target and kept the door open for one more Fed rate hike in 2023. The outlook, meanwhile, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and should act as a tailwind for the buck. Apart from this, a modest downtick in Crude Oil prices could undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and lend some support to the USD/CAD pair.

This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that last week's bounce from the 1.3570-1.3565 region has run its course and positioning for the resumption of the recent pullback from a multi-month high touched earlier this month. Market participants now look to the US economic docket, featuring the Empire State Manufacturing Index. This, along with the Fedspeaks, the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment, will drive the USD later during the North American session. Apart from this, Oil price dynamics should provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair.

Technical levels to watch