USD/JPY struggles for a firm direction, stuck in a range around mid-149.00s

• USD/JPY edges higher during the Asian session, albeit lacks follow-through buying.
• Intervention fears cap the upside for the pair on the back of subdued USD demand.
• The divergent BoJ-Fed policy outlook continues to act as a tailwind and lend support.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some dip-buying near the 149.35-149.30 area during the Asian session on Monday, albeit lacks follow-through and remains below a one-and-half-week high touched on Friday.

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on its post-US CPI gains registered over the past two trading days and kicks off the new week on a subdued note, which, in turn, is seen acting as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair. Several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials signalled that the US central bank could forgo a rate hike in November as a run-up in bond yields that has tightened financial conditions. This, in turn, is holding back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and acting as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair.

Apart from this, speculations that Japan will intervene in the FX market to combat a sustained depreciation in the Japanese Yen (JPY) further contribute to keeping a lid on the major. That said, a more dovish stance adopted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), along with a positive tone around the US equity futures, is seen undermining the safe-haven JPY and lending some support to the USD/JPY pair.  In fact, the Japanese central bank retains its view that inflation is transient and has no plans to phase out its massive monetary stimulus.

In contrast, the markets are still pricing in the possibility of one more Fed rate hike by the end of this year. The bets were lifted following the release of the US CPI report last week, which showed that inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target and supported prospects for further policy tightening. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and favours the USD bulls, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside. Hence, any downtick might still be seen as a buying opportunity.

Market participants now look to the US economic docket, featuring the Empire State Manufacturing Index. This, along with the Fedspeaks and the US bond yields, will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the USD/JPY pair later during the early North American session. Traders will further take cues from the broader risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities around the major.

Technical levels to watch