USD/INR maintains position above 83.20 on surging oil prices, expect RBI intervention

• USD/INR could face challenges due to the rising Crude oil prices.
• RBI is expected to intervene to prevent further depreciation of the Indian Rupee.
• US Dollar experienced upward support on risk aversion over the Middle-East conflict.

USD/INR trades above 83.20 during the Asian session on Monday. The Indian Rupee (INR) may encounter challenges due to the rise in crude oil prices amid the conflict between Palestine and Israel.

However, traders anticipate intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to prevent further depreciation of the domestic currency. The RBI has been actively intervening in both the spot over-the-counter market and in non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) to prevent the INR from depreciating below the record low of 83.29.

Moreover, on Friday, India’s Trade Deficit Government reduced to a five-month low of $19.37B in September, compared to the market consensus of $23.25B. The previous reading was $24.2B in August. While FX Reserves for the week ending on October 6, declined to $584.74B from $586.91B.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades slightly lower around 106.50. The US Dollar (USD) gained momentum following the release of robust data in the previous week, with inflation surpassing expectations and initial jobless claims coming in lower than anticipated.

However, the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for October showed an easing trend. On Friday, the report indicated a decline to 63.0 from the previous reading of 68.1, falling short of the expected figure of 67.4.

Furthermore, the US Dollar continues to draw support from safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Palestine. According to an undisclosed source cited by Reuters, discussions have taken place between US officials and Israel regarding the potential visit of President Joe Biden to Israel. The reported invitation for this visit comes from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Investors appear to be considering the possibility of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The market sentiment has shifted after the release of strong economic data from the United States (US), potentially providing upward support for the USD/INR pair.

Furthermore, the recovery in US Treasury yields from recent losses could contribute to underpinning the US Dollar (USD). As of Monday, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield stands at 4.66%, up by 1.13%.

Market participants will closely watch the US Retail Sales (MoM) on Tuesday, with expectations for a 0.2% rise in September compared to the previous reading of 0.6%.