US Retail Sales Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, tepid gains after surging since spring

We expect retail sales to decline (-0.1%) after two strong months.

We expect total sales to have risen 0.4%. Ex-auto outlays could have been a tad weaker, advancing 0.3%.

September US retail sales likely ticked up 0.1% from the prior month. Unit auto sales recovered (+2%) in September after two consecutive declines in prior months. Gas prices were still high, but growing at a slower pace; sales at gas stations likely remained flat during that month.

We expect a mild 0.3% MoM increase for retail sales for the aggregate but note that higher gasoline prices are partially responsible for the gain. Ex-auto and ex-gasoline, we expect just a 0.2% increase. The increase implies a drop in volumes for September after an earlier decline of 0.2% in real terms for August. 

We expect a modest 0.1% MoM increase in total retail sales in September, which follows a couple of months of strong increases. Autos should boost retail sales this month after unit auto sales increased in September following two months of declines. Gasoline sales could also provide a modest boost since gas prices increased in seasonally adjusted terms. We expect control group sales to remain unchanged this month, with non-store sales increasing but most other control group categories declining. Despite September retail sales being on the softer side, goods consumption growth has been much stronger in the third quarter overall compared to the second and has boosted Q3 GDP. If real goods consumption continues to be strong in the coming months, that would add to the evidence that the rotation from goods to services has come to an end.

We forecast retail sales growth in September was 0.3%, and our call is for retail sales excluding autos to grow 0.2%. Adjusting for inflation, we look for real retail sales to grow 0.2% in September.