GBP/USD conquers 1.2200 on risk-appetite, despite rising geopolitical tensions

• GBP/USD jumps off last week's lows, reclaiming 1.2200, amidst rising geopolitical tensions.
• US equities recover some losses, with the Greenback under pressure as DXY drops 0.55% to 105.57.
• Upcoming economic data includes US Q3 GDP and core PCE, with UK employment data and S&P Global PMIs on the horizon.

GBP/USD jumps off last week's lows and reclaims 1.2200 amid rising geopolitical tensions, which has been tossed aside, as Wall Street portrays an improvement in market sentiment, a headwind for the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and US Treasury bond yields. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2251, a gain of 0.73%.

GBP/USD gains 0.73%, trading at 1.2251, as US Treasury bond yields plummet

US equities pare some of last Friday’s losses amid an improvement in market sentiment, as US Treasury bond yields continued to plummet. Hence, the Greenback remains under downward pressure as the US Dollar Index (DXY) tracks a basket of six currencies vs. the US Dollar and drops 0.55%, at 105.57.

Aside from this, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index was below forecasts of 0.05 at 0.02 but exceeded last month’s slump to -0.22. According to BBH Analysts regarding the Chicago Fed Index, “a positive headline reading means the U.S. economy is growing above trend, which speaks to its ongoing resilience. Of note, the 3-month moving average would come in at -0.05 vs. -0.13 in July and would be the highest since last October. Also, recall that the recession signal comes when the 3-month moving average hits -0.7, and we are far from that.”

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials parade ended last week as policymakers focused on next week’s monetary policy meeting. There’s a growing consensus to remain data-dependent and to be patient and nimble when setting policy. The CME FedWatch Tool does not show odds for a rate hike in November, though odds for January 2024 remain above 30%.

Up next, the US calendar would reveal the preliminary reading of the third quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), along with the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, the core PCE.

On the UK front, the docket would feature employment data to be released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which would not feature inflation data. Additionally, S&P Global PMIs would reveal its preliminary readings for October.

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD remains downward biased after the appearance of a death-cross, a bearish signal. The ongoing upward correction, unless it breaks the latest cycle high of 1.2337, the October 11 high, the pair remains downward biased. On the upside, the next resistance is 1.2300, followed by the latter. Conversely, if sellers step in and drag the exchange rate beneath 1.2200, that could pave the way for further losses. The first support is seen at 1.2150, followed by the