Gold price (XAU/USD) kicks off the new week on a weaker note and extends Friday's retracement slide from levels above the $2,000 psychological mark touched in reaction to softer jobs data from the United States (US). The US Dollar (USD) attracts some buying in the wake of a modest pickup in the US Treasury bond yields and turns out to be a key factor weighing on the precious metal. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets drags the safe-haven commodity below the $1,985 level during the Asian session.
That said, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is nearing the end of its policy tightening campaign should cap any further upside for the USD and continue to lend some support to the non-yielding Gold price. Apart from this, the risk of a further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict should help limit the downside for the XAU/USD. This, in turn, warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders and before positioning for any meaningful corrective decline from the YTD peak, around the $2,009 region touched on October 27.
From a technical perspective, any subsequent downfall is likely to find some support near the $1,980 level ahead of last week's swing high, near the $1,970 region. Some follow-through selling will make the Gold price vulnerable to slide further towards the $1,964 area en route to the next relevant support to the $1,954-1,953 zone.
On the flip side, the $2,000 mark could act as an immediate barrier ahead of Friday's swing high, around the $2,004 area and the YTD peak, around the $2,009 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter has the potential to lift the Gold price further towards the $2,022 resistance zone.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | 0.00% | 0.03% | -0.03% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.12% | -0.16% | |
| EUR | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.03% | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.11% | -0.17% | |
| GBP | -0.03% | -0.03% | -0.07% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.07% | -0.20% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.07% | 0.10% | 0.11% | 0.14% | -0.14% | |
| AUD | -0.06% | -0.08% | -0.03% | -0.11% | 0.00% | 0.05% | -0.24% | |
| JPY | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.27% | -0.09% | 0.00% | 0.03% | -0.25% | |
| NZD | -0.12% | -0.09% | -0.08% | -0.14% | -0.04% | -0.04% | -0.27% | |
| CHF | 0.17% | 0.17% | 0.20% | 0.13% | 0.24% | 0.25% | 0.28% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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