Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD flat-lines below $2,050, focus on geopolitical tensions

• Gold price trades flat around $2,045 amid the US bank holiday.
• US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December rose by 1.0% YoY versus 0.8% prior, below market expectations.
• The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost safe-haven buying and benefit gold price.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a flat note during the early Asian session on Monday. That being said, the uptick of the yellow metal is supported by the softer US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. At press time, the gold price is trading at $2,045, losing 0.01% on the day.

On Friday, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December rose by 1.0% on a yearly basis from the revised 0.8% increase in November, below market expectations of 1.3%. The annual core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed by 1.8% in December from 2.0% in the previous reading and was below the market consensus of 1.9%. The monthly core PPI remained unchanged for the third consecutive month.

The PPI report reveals some deflationary signs, which help boost confidence in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cutting interest rates in March. Investors are pricing in 74.2% odds of a rate cut in March, up from 70% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This, in turn, weighs on the Greenback and acts as a tailwind for the gold price.

Apart from this, the gains of yellow metal were driven by safe-haven buying amid rising geopolitical tensions. The United States and the United Kingdom launched strikes against Houthi targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen last week, marking a significant response after the Biden administration and its allies warned that the Iran-backed militant group would bear the consequences of its attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

In the absence of top-tier US economic data from the US due to the Martin L. King's Birthday bank holiday, risk sentiment is likely to remain the key driver behind the gold price action. Later this week, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will be due on Tuesday, Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday, and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index report will be published on Friday.