The Pound Sterling (GBP) rebounds strongly in Wednesday’s London session as the United Kingdom Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March grew more than what economists had expected. Despite beating estimates, inflation has softened from February, suggesting that higher interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE) contribute to abate price pressures.
Meanwhile, producer price inflation has also slowed, indicating prices of goods and services at factory gates are easing. Business owners generally slash their prices when they expect demand to remain subdued.
Slightly hot inflation figures could question expectations that the BoE will cut rates in November, although Tuesday’s employment data suggested that the UK’s job market is cooling. The labor market report showed that the Unemployment Rate rose sharply to 4.2% in three months ending February from expectations of 4.0% and the prior release of 3.9%. The number of employed people fell by 156K in the three months to February, more than the 89K jobs lost in the quarter to January.
The Pound Sterling exhibits a firm footing after the release of the UK inflation report for March. The GBP/USD pair sees strong buying near the crucial support at 1.2400. The upside in the Cable is seen limited near the psychological resistance of 1.2500. This coincides with the breakdown region of the Head and Shoulder chart formation on the daily time frame.
The long-term outlook turns bearish as the Cable drops below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.2560.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, suggesting an active downside momentum.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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