EUR/USD climbs over 1.0780 on broad-market risk appetite recovery

• EUR/USD climbs into positive territory for the week.
• Rate cut bets increase on rising US unemployment claims.
• US consumer sentiment due on Friday.

EUR/USD gained ground on Thursday, finding upside on the week after the US Dollar (USD) broadly fell back after rising US Initial Jobless Claims sparked renewed hope of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 231K for the week ended May 3, the highest number of new jobless benefits seekers week-on-week since last August. With possible signs of weakness appearing in the US job market, rate-hungry markets pivoted into risk appetite. 

At current cut, the CME’s FedWatch Tool shows interest rate markets are pricing in nearly 70% odds of at least a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s September rate call. Rate traders are also pricing in 67% chances of a second rate cut from the Fed before the end of 2024.

Fed Daly: Considerable uncertainty about inflation over the next three months

Despite broad-market hopes for Fed rate trims this year, Fedspeak continues to lean into caution. San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly noted on Thursday that the inflation outlook remains uncertain, and recent downturns in employment data appear to be low-risk.

EUR/USD technical outlook

EUR/USD rallied on Thursday as the pair rebounds from the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0740, sending the pair into the green for the week, up a quarter of a percent from Monday’s early opening bids and testing 1.0790.

Daily candlesticks warn of stiff resistance for bullish momentum as EUR/USD approaches the 200-day EMA at 1.0788, and the pair has struggled to develop meaningful momentum, grinding from the last swing low into the 1.0600 handle.

EUR/USD hourly chart

EUR/USD daily chart