Dow Jones Industrial Average teases fresh record high on tepid Monday

• The Dow Jones clipped into an all-new record peak, but remains flat overall.
• Equities are tilted upwards, but overall market momentum remains limited.
• US S&P PMI figures came in mixed on Monday, but Fedspeak dominates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tested into a fresh record bid on Monday, but middling US data prints and cautious Fedspeak early in the day have kept risk appetite restrained. S&P US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures printed on both sides of median market forecasts, and Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned that despite the Fed’s extra-wide initial rate cut this month, further moves on the Fed’s reference rate could be needed over the next year to head off a potential deterioration of the US labor market.

September’s S&P US Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.0 MoM, falling to its lowest level since July of 2023 as the US manufacturing sector sees a continued gloomy outlook on business activity. On the other hand, the S&P US Services PMI eased to 55.4 in September, down from August’s 55.7 but beating the expected print of 55.2.

Fed policymaker and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee hit markets with cooling comments early Monday, noting that much further movement on rates from the Fed could be necessary. The Fed official highlighted that the Fed may need to shoot much lower on policy rates in order to keep business lending conditions sufficiently liquid enough to keep the US business landscape keel-side down as record tightness in the US labor market drains away.

Dow Jones news

Roughly half of the Dow Jones index tested the low side on Monday, forcing the equity board to middle on headline figures. Intel (INTC) rose nearly 3% early in the day after it was reported that Apollo Global Management has floated a $5 billion investment in Intel, which signaled that investors are growing confident that the chipmaker may be able to turn around their recent backslide. The investment exploration from (AGM) also helped to head off a possible acquisition bid from Intel’s immediate competitor in the silicon space, Qualcomm, which recently looked into purchasing the entirety of Intel outright.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones continues to grind out chart paper near the 42,000 price handle despite a series of brief tests into all-time highs. The DJIA has rallied nearly 5.5% from the last swing low below 40,000 bottom-to-top, but near-term bullish momentum appears to be straining at the outer limits.

With bulls running out of technical levels to act as hard targets, the Dow Jones could be primed for a half-hearted bearish pullback with an immediate technical floor priced in near the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rising from 40,700.

Dow Jones daily chart