EUR/USD hangs near its lowest level since mid-August, seems vulnerable around 1.0975 area

• EUR/USD enters a bearish consolidation phase after last week’s downfall to mid-1.0900s.
• The USD preserves the post-NFP gains to a multi-week top and caps the upside for the pair.
• Bets for another ECB rate cut in October undermine the Euro and further act as a headwind.

The EUR/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and consolidates last week's heavy losses to its lowest level since mid-August touched in the aftermath of the upbeat US employment details on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.0975 region and seem vulnerable to prolong the recent sharp pullback from a 14-month top – levels just above the 1.1200 mark. 

The US Dollar (USD) stands tall near a seven-week top as traders further trimmed their bets for another oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November on the back of surprisingly strong US jobs data. The headline NFP showed that the economy added 254K jobs in September, surpassing consensus estimates by a big margin, and the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly slipped to 4.1%. This provided evidence of a still resilient US labor market, while higher-than-expected growth in the Average Hourly Earnings revived inflation fears, smashing hopes for a more aggressive policy easing by the Fed. 

In fact, the current market pricing indicates a nearly 95% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points at the end of a two-day policy meeting on November 7. Adding to this, persistent geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East assisted the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to register its bets week since September 2022. The shared currency, on the other hand, continues to be undermined by bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates again in October on the back of easing inflationary pressures and economic slowdown. 

The expectations were reaffirmed by comments from ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, saying that the central bank will cut rates in October as weak economic growth raises the risk that inflation will undershoot the 2% target. This, in turn, is seen as another factor acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair and supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move. Hence, any attempted recovery might still be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly.