DXY: Stays bid on the day – OCBC

The US Dollar (USD) continued its march higher. As Trump nomination started to make its way to newswires, markets are also starting to adjust their expectations, believing that Trump may hit the ground running in Jan 2025, unlike in 2016 when he was less prepared. DXY was last at 105.95 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Trump policy uncertainty to keep USD supported on dips

This is helping to lend a boost to Trump trade (i.e. long USD, short CNH). Elsewhere, USD’s move higher was also likely in anticipation of Fedspeaks (Powell speaks on Fri morning), US data (CPI tonight and PPI tomorrow). Consensus expects core CPI to hold steady at 3.3% while headline CPI may come in higher at 2.6%. The uptick may raise doubts if Fed will still cut rates in Dec, adding to USD upward pressure.

“Tariff risk and Trump policy uncertainty may continue to keep USD supported on dips. Daily momentum is bullish while RSI rose. Near term risks skewed to the upside. Resistance here at 106.20, 106.50 levels (2024 high). Support at 104.60 (61.8% fibo), 103.70/80 levels (200 DMAs, 50% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low).”