Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates around $30.50 as US PCE inflation takes center stage

• Silver price oscillates around $30.50 as the focus shifts to US PCE inflation data for October.
• The US Dollar refreshes weekly low ahead of the US PCE inflation data release.
• The safe-haven appeal of the Silver price weakens as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran comes into effect.

Silver price (XAG/USD) exhibits indecisiveness near $30.50 in Wednesday’s European session, with investors focusing on the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for October, which will be published at 15:00 GMT.

Investors await the US PCE inflation data to get more insights about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate action in the December meeting. The possibility for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% next month has increased to 66% from 56% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Investors will pay close attention to the core PCE inflation data – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – as it is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect the annual core PCE inflation to have accelerated to 2.8% from 2.7% in September, with monthly figures growing steadily by 0.3%.

The Silver price remains well-supported above $30.00 from the past two trading sessions amid a correction in the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against ix major currencies, posts a fresh weekly low near 106.50.

However, the bias towards the Silver price remains downbeat as its safe-haven demand has diminished on initiation of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

It began at 02:00 GMT on Wednesday, putting an at least temporary end to nearly 14 months of conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group, according to BBC News.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price resumes its declining trend after a mean-reversion move to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $31.40. The white metal is expected to retreat to the November 14 low of around $29.70. The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The upward-sloping trendline from the February 29 low of $22.30 will act as key support for the Silver price around $29.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Silver daily chart