NZD/USD recovers to near 0.5880 as US Dollar slumps, US NFP in focus

• NZD/USD rebounds to near 0.5880 as weak US Services PMI weighs on the US Dollar.
• Fed Powell said officials can afford to be cautious on interest rate cuts.
• The RBNZ is expected to cut its OCR by 50 bps in its first policy meeting of 2025.

The NZD/USD pair bounces back to near 0.5880 in Thursday’s European session after a three-day losing spree. The Kiwi pair rebounds as the US Dollar (USD) drops due to weaker-than-expected United States (US) ISM Services PMI data for November.

Wednesday’s Services PMI data showed that activities in the services sector expanded at a slower-than-expected pace to 52.1 from 56.0 in October. Economists expected the Service PMI at 55.5.

At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades cautiously near the key support of 106.00.

Going forward, the next move in the USD will be guided by the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for November, which will be released on Friday. Economists expect that the US economy added 200K fresh workers. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have accelerated to 4.2% from 4.1% in October.

The official labor market data will significantly influence market speculation for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate path. Meanwhile, the comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the New York Times DealBook Summit on Wednesday indicated that officials could have the comfort of becoming cautious on interest rate cuts, assuming that the economic growth is stronger than what the central bank had anticipated in September.

In the New Zealand (NZ) region, the expectations of more large-size interest rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would keep the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) outlook bearish. The RBNZ has already reduced its Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.25% and is expected to cut by 50 basis points (bps) in its policy meeting on February 19.