USD/INR trades flat as traders await US Retail Sales release

• The Indian Rupee flat lines in Tuesday’s Asian session. 
• Rising US bond yields and a weaker Chinese Yuan could undermine the INR, but the RBI’s intervention might help limit its losses. 
• Traders brace for the US November Retail Sales on Tuesday ahead of the Fed rate decision.

The Indian Rupee (INR) consolidates in a narrow trading range on Tuesday after weakening to a new closing low in the previous session. A rise in US Treasury bond yields and weakness in the Chinese Yuan exert some selling pressure on the local currency. Furthermore, the widening of India’s merchandise trade deficit in November further weighs on the INR. 

Any significant depreciation of the Indian Rupee might be limited as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will likely sell the USD via state-owned banks to avoid excess volatility. The US November Retail Sales is due later on Tuesday. All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday for fresh catalysts. Also, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and the updated economic projections will be closely monitored. 

Indian Rupee holds steady on the back of global cues

• The Indian WPI inflation eased to a three-month low of 1.89% in November from 2.36% in October, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed on Monday. This figure came in softer than the expectation of 2.2%.
• The preliminary estimate released by HSBC showed on Monday that the India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 57.4 in December versus 56.5 prior. 
• The Indian Services PMI climbed to 60.8 in December from 58.4 prior. The Composite PMI jumped to 60.7 during the same report period from 58.6 in November.
• "The small rise in the headline manufacturing PMI in December was mainly driven by gains in current production, new orders, and employment," said Ines Lam, economist at HSBC. 
• The US S&P Global Composite PMI improved to 56.6 in December’s flash estimate versus 54.9 prior. Meanwhile, the Services PMI increased to 58.5 in December’s flash estimate from 56.1. The Manufacturing PMI eased to 48.3 from 49.7. 

USD/INR keeps the bullish vibe in the longer term

The Indian Rupee trades flat on the day. The constructive view of the USD/INR pair prevails, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located above the midline near 68.35, supporting the buyers in the near term. 

The ascending trend channel and the psychological level of 85.00 appear to be a tough nut to crack for bulls. Sustained bullish momentum could even take USD/INR to 85.50. 

On the other hand, the first downside target to watch is the lower boundary of the trend channel of 84.80. A breach of this level could expose 84.22, the low of November 25. The potential support level for the pair is seen at 84.13, the 100-day EMA.