China: 4Q24 GDP is boosted by industrial sector – UOB Group

China’s 4Q24 GDP growth accelerated to 5.4% y/y, 1.6% q/q sa. The 2024 full year growth of 5.0% has met official target, coming in slightly higher than our forecast of 4.9%. The stronger recovery was driven by the industrial sector, UOB Group's economist Ho Woei Chen notes.

4Q24 GDP growth beat estimates

"China’s stimulus measures have continued to stabilise its economy. Frontloading of industrial production and exports ahead of Trump’s second term likely contributed to the strong manufacturing output but this is unlikely to be sustained and we expect some payback later this year."

"Private consumption was more moderate and tilted towards consumption under the government’s subsidy program while the property market continued to stabilize on the back of stimulus measures. We keep our forecast for China’s growth in 2025 at 4.3% until we get better clarity of Trump’s plans for potential tariffs and the extent of China’s fiscal boost."

"The depreciation pressure on the CNY may bring about some delay to rate cuts as PBOC stepped up efforts to support the local currency. In the near-term, there is more room for an RRR cut given that PBOC skipped a move flagged for December."