Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades cautiously as US Dollar rebounds with Trump’s policies in focus

• Silver price ticks lower as the US Dollar recovers sharply, with Trump keeping the tariff hike plan intact.
• Trump directed federal agencies to scrutinize trade relations with neighbors and China.
• Traders have raised dovish bets for the Fed’s May policy meeting.

Silver price (XAG/USD) drops slightly to near $30.50 in Tuesday’s European session. The white metal faces pressures as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds strongly after President Donald Trump confirmed that the plan of tariff hikes on foreign countries is delayed not denied. On his first day at the White House, Trump mentioned that the proposal of universal tariff hikes is on the table, but “We are not ready for that yet”.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds sharply from its almost two-week low around 108.00, which it posted on Monday. Historically, a higher US Dollar weighs on precious metals, such as Silver, by making them expensive for investors.

The Greenback plummeted on Tuesday after reports from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed that tariff hikes were absent in a presidential memo. However, the memo indicated that Trump has directed federal agencies to study trade policies and evaluate trade relationships with China and other North American economies.

Meanwhile, the downside in the Silver price has been limited by falling bond yields. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets, such as Silver, which improves their appeal. 10-year US Treasury yields decline to 4.56%. US Treasury yields have slumped as trader expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates in the policy meeting in May.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to reduce interest rates in May has eased to 53% from 63% a week ago.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price struggles near the upward-sloping trendline around $30.80, which is plotted from 29 February 2024 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe.

The white metal discovered strong buying interest near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $29.45 and but struggles to sustain above the 50-day EMA, which is around $30.30.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) faces pressure near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if it manages to break above 60.00.

Silver daily chart