GBP/USD holds gains near 1.2600 in quiet US holiday trade

• GBP/USD maintains last week’s gains after upbeat UK GDP data.
• BoE’s Catherine Mann signals dovish shift, weighing on sentiment.
• Traders eye UK jobs, inflation data; Fed speakers and FOMC minutes ahead.

The Pound Sterling registered modest gains versus the US Dollar on Monday in thin liquidity trade due to the observance of US President's Day. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD exchanged hands shy of 1.2600, up 0.05%.

Sterling steadies, but dovish BoE tilt may cap upside

Cable maintained its profits from last week, following better-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the last quarter of 2024. However, a dovish tilt by Bank of England (BoE) member Catherine Mann could weigh on the GBP/USD pair and push it lower.

Recently, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that inflation is slowing and added that an expected increase in prices would be short-lived. Traders are eyeing the release of UK labor market data on February 18, followed by inflation figures, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expected to rise from 2.5% to 2.8%.

Aside from this, Philadelphia Fed Patrick Harker said the status of the economy warrants a steady rate policy for now, with monetary policy in a good place right now. He added that inflation is elevated and has been sticky for recent months and that the Fed policy stance should continue to lower inflation.

The US economic docket will feature further Fed speakers, housing data, the latest FOMC meeting minutes, Initial Jobless Claims, and S&P Global Flash PMIs.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Given the fundamental backdrop, the GBP/USD surges, as momentum favors further upside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish. Nevertheless, the pair remains below last Friday’s peak of 1.2629, with buyers unable to crack the latter and if sellers drive the exchange rate below 1.2600, further downside lies ahead.

Key support levels would be the February 5 high turned support at 1.2549, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2468. Conversely, if GBP/USD clears the February 14 high of 1.2629, the pair could aim to the 100-day SMA at 1.2686, ahead of the 200-day SMA at 1.2786.