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04.02.2014
19:20
American focus : euro sideways against the dollar

The euro exchange rate is trading without a trend against the U.S. dollar while investors awaited the outcome of the ECB meeting this week.

Little impact on the dynamics of trade had a report , according to which it was reported that producer prices rose in December , registering with the first increase in the last three months , which is slightly eased fears about the fragility of recovery in Europe. According to the data, in December producer prices rose by 0.2% compared with the previous month, but , nevertheless, were 0.8% lower than in December 2012 . Recall that prices fell in October and November - by 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively.

Data released last week by Eurostat showed that consumer prices rose 0.7 % in January, compared with an increase of 0.8 % in December , reinforcing fears that a prolonged period of low inflation will be difficult for the eurozone to address its economic imbalances and reduce the large debt. Therefore, the growth of producer prices will be welcomed by politicians of the European Central Bank.

During the session of the published data , which showed that in the United States by the end of the month of December , new orders for manufactured goods fell markedly , while offset by an increase , which was celebrated last month. Experts note that the decrease in orders , was mainly due to the sharp decline in demand for transport equipment. The report said that factory orders fell 1.5 percent in December , compared with a revised downward by 1.5 percent increase in November. Economists had expected orders to fall by about 1.1 percent compared with growth of 1.8 percent in the previous month , which was originally reported. In addition , the data showed that, except for a 9.7- percent decline in orders for transportation equipment, factory orders rose in December by 0.2 percent .

Pound previously has grown significantly against the U.S. dollar , which helped the publication of a positive report by Britain. Recent data from Markit / CIPS showed that activity in January in the UK construction sector has grown substantially , continuing its promotion of the territory expansion, and reaching its highest level since the financial crisis . According to the report , with the seasonally adjusted index of business activity in the construction sector grew in January to a level of 64.6 points compared to 62.1 points in December . We add that the index remains above the neutral mark of 50.0 points , which separates expansion from contraction, for the ninth consecutive month. Also, note that the latter value was the highest since August 2007. According to experts , this indicator should be reduced to the level of 61.6 points.

Australian dollar rose by two figures against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with a decision by the RBA rates. Reserve Bank of Australia today decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low - 2.5 percent , and noted that a period of stability in interest rates may be "the most sensible course " at the moment.

Monetary policy bank " appropriately configured to ensure sustainable growth in demand and inflation in accordance with the purpose ," said the head of Glenn Stevens said in a statement today. " Based on current evidence, the most prudent course would be a period of stability in interest rates ," he added .

The Board of Directors expects that inflation will be slightly higher than stated in the forecasts three months ago , but will be in line with the target of 2-3 percent over the next two years. Higher inflation , currency devaluation and rising house prices may be causing the Reserve Bank decision to refrain from further easing of monetary policy . Recall that the RBA will cut interest rates by 225 basis points since November 2011 to help the economy to support demand in areas outside the resources sector , taking into account the damping mining boom .

15:00
U.S.: Factory Orders , December -1.5% (forecast -1.1%)
13:45
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

USD/JPY Y100.00, Y101.00, Y101.90, Y102.00, Y102.50

EUR/JPY Y139.40, Y140.00

EUR/USD $1.3425, $1.3475, $1.3550, $1.3575, $1.3625, $1.3650

EUR/CHF Chf1.2240, Chf1.2300

AUD/USD $0.8690, $0.8700, $0.8775, $0.8900, $0.8980

AUD/JPY Y92.25, Y93.00

USD/CAD C$1.1050, C$1.1300

13:14
European session: the pound has risen sharply against the U.S. dollar

Data

00:00 China Bank holiday

03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction January 62.1 61.6 64.6

10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM December -0.1% +0.3% +0.2%

10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) December -1.2% -0.8%


The euro exchange rate has returned some of the previously lost ground against the dollar, but , despite this , still trading slightly lower . Add that on the eve of the ECB meeting among market participants caution prevails . Today, key reports are expected , and the couple may continue to consolidate in anticipation of the ECB and the U.S. employment data with no / x sector.

Little impact on the dynamics of trade had the PPI report . It is learned that producer prices rose in December , registering with the first increase in the last three months , which is slightly eased fears about the fragility of recovery in Europe. It became known from the report , which was introduced earlier EU statistical agency . According to the data, in December producer prices rose by 0.2% compared with the previous month, but , nevertheless, were 0.8% lower than in December 2012 . Recall that prices fell in October and November - by 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively.

Data released last week by Eurostat showed that consumer prices rose 0.7 % in January, compared with an increase of 0.8 % in December , reinforcing fears that a prolonged period of low inflation will be difficult for the eurozone to address its economic imbalances and reduce the large debt. Therefore, the growth of producer prices will be welcomed by politicians of the European Central Bank ,

Pound has risen considerably against the U.S. dollar , which helped the publication of positive report on Britain. Recent data from Markit / CIPS showed that activity in January in the UK construction sector has grown substantially , continuing its promotion of the territory expansion, and reaching its highest level since the financial crisis . According to the report , with the seasonally adjusted index of business activity in the construction sector grew in January to a level of 64.6 points compared to 62.1 points in December . We add that the index remains above the neutral mark of 50.0 points , which separates expansion from contraction, for the ninth consecutive month. Also, note that the latter value was the highest since August 2007. According to experts , this indicator should be reduced to the level of 61.6 points.

Australian dollar rose almost two figures against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the decision of the RBA rates. Reserve Bank of Australia today decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low - 2.5 percent , and noted that a period of stability in interest rates may be "the most sensible course " at the moment.

Monetary policy bank " appropriately configured to ensure sustainable growth in demand and inflation in accordance with the purpose ," said the head of Glenn Stevens said in a statement today. " Based on current evidence, the most prudent course would be a period of stability in interest rates ," he added .

The Board of Directors expects that inflation will be slightly higher than stated in the forecasts three months ago , but will be in line with the target of 2-3 percent over the next two years. Higher inflation , currency devaluation and rising house prices may be causing the Reserve Bank decision to refrain from further easing of monetary policy . Recall that the RBA will cut interest rates by 225 basis points since November 2011 to help the economy to support demand in areas outside the resources sector , taking into account the damping mining boom .


EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3538 , and then fell to $ 1.3493 , and is now trading at $ 1.3517

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6343 , but then fell back slightly

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.50 from Y100.75


At 15:00 GMT the United States will announce the change in the volume of industrial orders in December. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand will report on changes in the number of employed and the unemployment rate for the 4th quarter . At 22:30 GMT Australia will release the index of activity in the service sector from January AiG .

10:28
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

USD/JPY Y100.00, Y101.00, Y101.90, Y102.00, Y102.50

EUR/JPY Y139.40, Y140.00

EUR/USD $1.3425, $1.3475, $1.3550, $1.3575, $1.3625, $1.3650

EUR/CHF Chf1.2240, Chf1.2300

AUD/USD $0.8690, $0.8700, $0.8775, $0.8900, $0.8980

AUD/JPY Y92.25, Y93.00

USD/CAD C$1.1050, C$1.1300

10:00
Eurozone: Producer Price Index, MoM , December +0.2% (forecast +0.3%)
10:00
Eurozone: Producer Price Index (YoY), December -0.8%
09:31
United Kingdom: PMI Construction, January 64.6 (forecast 61.6)
07:01
Asian session: The yen ended a four-day advance

00:00 China Bank holiday

03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%

03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement


The yen ended a four-day advance against the euro after BOJ data showed the nation’s monetary base posted the second-biggest surge on record. A 52 percent jump in Japan’s monetary base in January was the biggest on record after a 53 percent climb in November. The balance stood at 200.9 trillion yen ($1.98 trillion), which the central bank plans to increase to 270 trillion yen by the end of this year.

The central bank is doubling the provision of money in two years to combat deflation. The BOJ’s easing has had the intended impact so far, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told Japanese parliament today. Annual inflation will accelerate toward the central bank’s goal of 2 percent from the end of the current fiscal year in March 2015 to the following 12-month period, Kuroda said.

The Australian dollar rose after the Reserve Bank left interest unchanged and said conditions in emerging markets are considerably more challenging than a year ago. Government bonds pared gains.

The euro depreciated versus the dollar before the European Central Bank meets this week as concern over weakening inflation in the region grows.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3505

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.6280

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y101.40


There is another busy day Tuesday, as investors continue to ride the latest correction in global equity markets. With the reversal in part led by weakness in Emerging Markets, investors will await with caution the press conference from German Chancellor Merkel and Turkish PM Erdogan. Early German data will see the release of the German January car registration data, followed at 0900GMT by the publication of the German December machine orders. Also at 0900GMT, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco will speak on the "Legitimacy and a well functioning financial system", in Rome. Italian flash HICP data for January will also be released at 0900GMT, with analysts looking for a rise of 0.6% on year. There is only limited UK data set for release Tuesday, with only the January CIPS/Markit Construction PMI numbers set to cross the wires. At 1000GMT, the EMU December PPI numbers will be released. There is only limited UK data set for release Tuesday, with only the January CIPS/Markit Construction PMI numbers set to cross the wires. At 1500GMT, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will answer Treasury questions in Parliament, while at 1530GMT, BOE MPC member Andy Haldane speaks in Oxford.

06:15
Schedule for today, Tuesday, Feb 4’2014:

00:00 China Bank holiday

03:30 Australia Announcement of the RBA decision on the discount rate 2.50% 2.50%

03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index January -0.6% +0.4%

08:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y January +7.5% +7.3%

09:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction January 62.1 61.6

10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM December -0.1% +0.3%

10:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) December -1.2%

15:00 U.S. Factory Orders December +1.8% -1.1%

21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories January +4.8

21:45 New Zealand Employment Change, q/q Quarter IV +1.2% +0.7%

21:45 New Zealand Unemployment Rate Quarter IV 6.2% 6.0%

22:30 Australia AIG Services Index January 46.1

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