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06.08.2012

18:22

UBS: “There are probably considerations to see whether Spain requests official EFSF assistance. If that happens, the market would probably welcome it, and it would be another step toward a structural solution for the euro zone.”

17:23

American focus: the dollar retreated

The dollar fell as risk appetite increased amid speculation central banks may take further steps to boost economic growth.

The euro pared losses as German Chancellor Angel Merkel’s government backed the European Central Bank’s bond-buying plan.

The dollar dropped amid speculation a payrolls gain of 163,000 jobs in July wasn’t big enough to keep the Federal Reserve from taking further steps to spur the economy. Fed policy makers said Aug. 1 after a meeting that they “will provide additional accommodation as needed,” while they refrained from expanding monetary easing this month.

The euro fell earlier versus the yen and dollar after Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti said divisions within the 17- nation currency bloc are threatening the European Union’s future.

13:47

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.2300, $1.2350, $1.2400

USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.25, Y78.35, Y79.00

EUR/JPY Y95.50

GBP/USD $1.5600

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0520

13:18

European session: The pound fell against the dollar

Data:

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index July +1.0% -0.6%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y July -0.5% -0.6%

08:30 Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence August -29.6 -30.7 -30.3

The pound fell against the dollar, extending last week’s decline, after two reports showing weakness in the U.K. housing market underlined the fragility of Britain’s economy. Sterling dropped to a four-week low against the euro after Rightmove Plc (RMV) said home sellers may need to lower prices to lure buyers, and Halifax data showed house prices declined last month.
The euro fell against the yen and dollar after Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti said divisions over the debt crisis are threatening the continent’s future, amid German opposition to sovereign-bond purchases. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi last week outlined a plan under which the central bank may buy debt in tandem with the euro governments’ bailout fund, while saying the details still need to be worked out over the coming weeks. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said in an interview published a day before Draghi’s comments that the ECB shouldn’t exceed its mandate.
Europe’s common currency slipped from its strongest level in three weeks against the yen after a report showed European investor confidence dropped for a fifth month in August as the region grapples with the almost three-year-old financial turmoil. An index measuring sentiment in the 17-nation euro region slid to minus 30.3, from minus 29.6 in July, Limburg, Germany- based Sentix said in an e-mailed statement today.

EUR/USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $1.2340, but later recovered.
GBP/USD: during the European session, the pair fell below $1.5550.
USD/JPY: during the European session the pair continued to fall and fallen to Y78.25.

US events start at 1330GMT, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks via recorded video to the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, taking place in Boston.

12:18

Orders

EUR/USD
Offers   $1.2500, $1.2480, $1.2445, $1.2420, $1.2400/05
Bids   $1.2235/25, $1.2305/00, $1.2280/70

GBP/USD
Offers $1.5620, $1.5600, $1.5580/85
Bids   $1.5545, $1.5535/30, $1.5505/00

AUD/USD
Offers $1.0650, $1.0635/40, $1.0600
Bids   $1.0500, $1.0480, $1.0450, $1.0430, $1.0400

EUR/JPY
Offers   Y98.00, Y97.80, Y97.50, Y97.20/25
Bids   Y96.50, Y96.20, Y96.00, Y95.80, Y95.50

USD/JPY
Offers   Y79.00, Y78.80, Y78.60/65
Bids   Y78.10, Y78.00, Y77.90, Y77.50

09:31

Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

EUR/USD $1.2300, $1.2400, $1.2500

USD/JPY Y78.00, Y78.25, Y78.35, Y79.00, Y79.20

EUR/JPY Y95.50

GBP/USD $1.5600

AUD/USD $1.0500, $1.0520

08:46

Asian session: The yen and dollar touched the lowest in more than three weeks against the euro

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) July -1.2% -0.8%

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index June 95.2 93.0 92.6

05:00 Japan Coincident Index June 95.8 93.9 93.8

The yen and dollar touched the lowest in more than three weeks against the euro as Asian shares extended a global rally on bets central banks are standing by to support growth, sapping demand for refuge assets. The yen held a decline from the end of last week against major peers amid speculation the Bank of Japan will take action to weaken the currency at a two-day policy meeting starting Aug. 8.
The Dollar Index slid to the lowest in a month before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks today. Bernanke is due to speak on economic measurement at a conference in Cambridge, Massachusetts today. The Labor Department said on Aug. 3 that U.S. payrolls increased by 163,000 in July, the most since February and exceeding the 100,000 gain estimated by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent from 8.2 percent in June.
Demand for the euro was limited before data tomorrow that may show Germany’s factory orders and Italy’s industrial output fell. Orders fell 7 percent in June from a year earlier, the steepest drop since October 2009, according to economist estimates before the figure is released in Berlin.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose above $1.2400, but later declined.
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell, approaching $1.5600.
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell, retreating from Friday's high.

At 0930GMT, the German government gives a press conference in Berlin, although there is no major European economic data on the schedule for Monday. UK data gets things started with the latest Halifax House Price Index at 0700GMT, while UK new car registrations data is also due, at 0800GMT. US events start at 1330GMT, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks via recorded video to the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, taking place in Boston.

08:31

Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence, August -30.3 (forecast -30.7)

08:03

Forex: Friday’s review

The dollar fell against most major currencies after the release of unexpectedly positive U.S. data on employment. According to the data, the number of jobs outside agriculture in the U.S. in July increased by 163,000, while economists had expected growth to 95 000.

In addition, in July, the ISM index in the U.S. service sector grew more strongly than in the previous month, helped by a substantial increase in orders. The indicator rose to 52.6 versus 52.1 in June. Economists expected the index would remain unchanged, while the analysts' estimates ranged from 50.5 to 53. Business activity and new orders showed an increase, while the employment component fell for the first time in December 2011, reaching 49.3 versus 52.3 in June.

The euro rose against other major currencies, receiving support from lower yields on bonds of Spain and Italy. In addition, the single currency is growing on rumors that the EFSF is going to give the banks their sovereign bonds. Earlier, the euro grew up on rumors that the Spanish Government intends to hold an unscheduled press conference, during which the authorities have formally requested the support of EFSF. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-year bonds dropped from Spain's level of 4.48% to 3.75%. We have published data on the PMI index in the euro area - the weak PMI data for France and Italy were offset by more favorable from those of Germany and the eurozone.