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The euro exchange rate against the dollar has declined markedly , although still shows a slight increase on the session . Note that this dynamics is connected with the expectations of progress in resolving the political impasse in the U.S. and comments Powell , who said that the mechanism of "quantitative easing" continues to operate , as well as statements Novotny .
I should add that , despite the fact that President Obama has not expressed support for the Republicans , the fact that the party has lost its strategic position on the debt ceiling sparked a rally in the markets , reviving risky assets. Yesterday, Republicans offered a compromise agreement , suggesting the extension of negotiations on the debt ceiling in exchange for a large-scale debate on the spending cuts . This decision was taken after the polls pointed to a negative attitude toward the Republican Party , and to their role in stopping the work of the government , which has led to the fact that 800 thousand civil servants were forced to go on leave without pay . In essence, the Republicans offer does not contain amendments that would have reduced funding and delaying the implementation of the Law on the availability of medical treatment , which has become a stumbling block in the political negotiations .
The U.S. dollar is going to close the week higher for the first time in the last 5 weeks. News provided support to risk sentiment , causing markets perked up . Unless Congress decides to raise the debt ceiling, it will reach its peak on October 17 , after which the U.S. will no longer be able to service its debt obligations. Confusion Republicans reduced the probability of default of the United States from low to zero .
The Canadian dollar rose sharply against the U.S. dollar, which helped the submitted data for Canada, as well as the first positive changes in the U.S. budget issue . As we learned from the data that were presented earlier by Statistics Canada , at the end of last month the unemployment rate in Canada fell unexpectedly , dropping at the same time by 0.2 percentage points to 6.9 %, which followed a decrease of 0.1 p § in August. Note that a positive change has taken place even despite the fact that the number of employed has changed little compared to the previous month .
The decrease in unemployment to 6.9% was attributed mainly young men looking for work , while the actual employment in all age categories was unchanged. The level of participation for all employees was at the level of 66.4 %, which was 2 percentage points lower than the previous month .
I should add that the last value in the unemployment rate is the lowest since December 2008 , when it stood at 6.8 %, while the participation rate was at around 67.5%. But immediately after that, in January 2009 , the unemployment rate rose very sharply - to 7.3 % in February - up to 8.0 %, which was a consequence of domestic and global recession.
At Statistics also reported that employment in September rose by 11,900 , as determined by a "small change " compared to the previous month. In annual terms, employment rose by 1.2 %, or 212,000 jobs. However, for the year as a whole , employment was little changed , as the number of people employed and the working-age population grew at the same pace .
EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3460, $1.3500, $1.3510, $1.3525, $1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3600, $1.3650
USD/JPY Y97.30, Y97.50, Y97.80, Y98.00, Y98.25, Y98.75, Y99.00
EUR/JPY Y132.50
GBP/USD $1.5900
EUR/GBP stg0.8410, stg0.8460, stg0.8500
USD/CHF Chf0.9000, Chf0.9070, Chf0.9170, Chf0.9225
EUR/CHF Chf1.2290, Chf1.2360, Chf1.2375
AUD/USD $0.9370-75, $0.9425, $0.9450, $0.9495, $0.9500, $0.9530
USD/CSD C$1.0340-45
EUR/USD
Offers $1.3650, $1.3600/10, $1.3580/85
Bids $1.3510/00, $1.3485/80, $1.3460/50
GBP/USD
Offers $1.6120/25, $1.6100, $1.6070/80, $1.6040/50, $1.6020
Bids $1.5950, $1.5920/00, $1.5870, $1.5850/40, $1.5820, $1.5800
AUD/USD
Offers $0.9600, $0.9550, $0.9520/30, $0.9500, $0.9485
Bids $0.9420, $0.9400, $0.9380
EUR/JPY
Offers Y134.50, Y133.90/00, Y133.80
Bids Y133.10/00, Y132.80, Y132.50, Y132.25/20
USD/JPY
Offers Y99.50, Y99.00, Y98.80
Bids Y98.00, Y97.85/80, Y97.50, Y97.20
EUR/GBP
Offers stg0.8550/55, stg0.8520/25, stg0.8495/500
Bids stg0.8455/50, stg0.8440, stg0.8425/15, stg0.8370/65, stg0.8320, stg0.8300
EUR/USD $1.3450, $1.3460, $1.3500, $1.3510, $1.3525, $1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3600, $1.3650
USD/JPY Y97.30, Y97.50, Y97.80, Y98.00, Y98.25, Y98.75, Y99.00
EUR/JPY Y132.50
GBP/USD $1.5900
EUR/GBP stg0.8410, stg0.8460, stg0.8500
USD/CHF Chf0.9000, Chf0.9070, Chf0.9170, Chf0.9225
EUR/CHF Chf1.2290, Chf1.2360, Chf1.2375
AUD/USD $0.9370-75, $0.9425, $0.9450, $0.9495, $0.9500, $0.9530
USD/CSD C$1.0340-45
The yen dropped versus all 16 major peers as Asian stocks advanced, sapping demand for safer assets, as U.S. lawmakers continued fiscal negotiations to avert a default.
The dollar climbed for a fourth day against the Japanese currency as U.S. Republicans and President Barack Obama pledged further discussions on a debt-limit increase and government shutdown. Obama didn’t accept or reject House Republicans’ plan to increase the debt limit as the two sides pledged to keep talking about avoiding default and ending the partial government shutdown. Both sides described the talks as constructive with a week remaining until U.S. borrowing authority lapses.
Dollar gains may stall before a report today predicted to show confidence among U.S. consumers declined to the lowest level since January this month. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of sentiment decreased to 75.6 this month from 77.5 in September, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
A report on U.S. retail sales scheduled to be released today is among those that have been delayed by the partial U.S. government closure that began Oct. 1 after Republicans insisted on changes to a 2010 health-care law.
Aussie gains may be sustained before a report tomorrow that will probably show imports by China climbed for a third-straight month. Chinese imports rose 7 percent in September from a year earlier, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg poll. China is Australia’s largest trading partner.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose to $1.3545
GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.5985
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y98.55
There is only limited UK data set for release, with August construction spending data due at 0830GMT. Output is seen up 0.8% on month, up 3.9% on year. There is another full calendar Friday, as central bank governors and finance officials gather in Washington for G20/IMF/World Bank meetings. US government-released data still remains off the calendar as the shutdown continues, despite better mood music out of DC. European data starts at 0600GMT, with the release of the September final HICP numbers and the September wholesale sales data. HICP is seen unchanged on the month, higher by 1.4% on year. At 0645GMT, the French August current account numbers are due to be published. At 0700GMT, Spain's September final HICP numbers are set for release. At 0800GMT, Italian September final HICP numbers will cross the wires. Italy's HICP is seen up 0.9% Y/Y. Sovereign issuance sees Italy conduct its medium-long BTP and floater CCTeu issues for up to E7.0bln.
(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)
EUR/USD $1,3525 +0,01%
GBP/USD $1,5970 +0,11%
USD/CHF Chf0,9110 +0,11%
USD/JPY Y98,28 +0,94%
EUR/JPY Y132,92 +0,95%
GBP/JPY Y156,94 +1,04%
AUD/USD $0,9462 +0,17%
NZD/USD $0,8286 -0,17%
USD/CAD C$1,0398 +0,06%
06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) September 0.0% 0.0%
06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) September +1.4% +1.4%
12:30 Canada Unemployment rate September 7.1% 7.1%
12:30 Canada Employment September +59.2 +15.3
13:00 United Kingdom Executive Director for Financial Stability Andy Haldane Speaks
13:00 IMF IMF Meetings
13:55 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) October 77.5 77.2
14:30 Canada Bank of Canada business outlook future sales Quarter III 9
14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Quarter III -12.7
15:00 U.S. FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks October
17:00 U.S. FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks
18:00 Switzerland Gov Board Member Danthine Speaks
20:00 Canada Gov Council Member Murray Speaks
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