Tin tức thì trường

The Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday, revealed the region's manufacturing activity continued to expand in July, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous month.

According to the survey, the diffusion index for current general activity fell from 27.5 in June to 24.1 this month, its second positive reading after reaching long-term lows in the spring.

Economists had forecast the index to decrease to 20.0.

A reading above 0 signals expansion, while a reading below 0 indicates contraction.

According to the report, the new orders index increased 6.3 points to 23.0, while the shipments index fell 10 points to 15.3. At the same time, unfilled orders rose 4 points to 3.9, while delivery times dropped 7 points to -6.4, suggesting shorter delivery times. The employment index jumped 24 points to 20.1, its highest reading since October 2019. On the price front, the prices paid index increased 5 points to 15.7, while prices received index held steady at 11.5.

The Commerce Department announced on Thursday that business inventories fell 2.3 percent m-o-m in May, following a revised 1.4 percent m-o-m decline in April (originally, a drop of 1.3 percent m-o-m).

That was the biggest decline in business inventories on record and was in line with economists’ forecast for a 2.3 percent m-o-m decrease.

According to the report, stocks at retailers plunged 6.2 percent m-o-m in May, while those at wholesalers dropped 1.2 percent m-o-m. At the same time, inventories at manufacturers rose 0.2 percent m-o-m.

In y-o-y terms, business inventories fell 4.8 percent in May.

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) announced on Thursday its housing market index (HMI) climbed 14 points to 72 in July from an unrevised June reading of 58. This was the highest reading since March (before the coronavirus outbreak affected much of the U.S.).

Economists had forecast the HMI to increase to 60.

A reading over 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI components registered gains this month. The indicator gauging current sales conditions jumped 16 points to 79 in July, while the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers climbed 15 points to 58 and the measure charting sales expectations surged 7 points to 75.

NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke noted: “Builders are seeing strong traffic and lots of interest in new construction as existing home inventory remains lean. Moreover, builders in the Northeast and the Midwest are benefiting from demand that was sidelined during lockdowns in the spring. Low interest rates are also fueling demand, and we expect housing to lead an overall economic recovery.”

Meanwhile, NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said: “While the housing market is clearly rebounding, challenges exist. Lumber prices are at a two-year high and builders are reporting rising costs for other building materials while lot and skilled labor availability issues persist. Nonetheless, the important story of the changing geography of housing demand is benefiting new construction. New home demand is improving in lower density markets, including small metro areas, rural markets and large metro exurbs, as people seek out larger homes and anticipate more flexibility for telework in the years ahead. Flight to the suburbs is real.”

• Says they have "slowed down a little bit" the pace of PEPP purchases because markets have been more stable
• Highlights flexibility in PEPP
• Says baseline is that they will use the full PEPP envelop but if there is "very significant upside" they might not
• Experience with tiering has been positive
• Tiering multiplier is working as intended
• Both multiplier and remuneration rate can be changed
• We don't see at the moment any reason to change tiering; haven't discussed it
• Second coronavirus wave in U.S. is concern
• ECB's baseline forecast takes potential second coronavirus wave into account
• Our assumption is that the European recovery fund will "come about" with a mix of loans and grants
• Bank lending trends are comforting
• We'll never let the capital key convergence impair policy efficiency
• Policy review to end in the second half of 2021

• Data signal resumption of economic activity
• Outlook remains highly uncertain
• Sees signs of bottoming out in April
• Job and income losses weigh on consumer spending
• Inflation dampened by energy prices
• Sees significant increase in slack
• Repeats policy statement
• Recovery uneven across sectors and jurisdictions
• Q2 economic contraction broadly in line with forecast
• Inflation to pick up in early 2021
• Risks remain on the downside
• Headline inflation to drop more in coming months
• Urges further strong and timely government efforts

The Commerce Department announced on Thursday the sales at U.S. retailers jumped 7.5 percent m-o-m in June, following a revised 18.2 percent m-o-m surge in May (originally a 17.7 percent m-o-m climb).

Economists had expected total sales would jump 5.0 percent m-o-m in June.

According to the report, sales at clothing stores, electronics and appliances, furniture and sporting goods, music and books posted the biggest gains in June, while sales at food and beverage stores fell.

Excluding auto, retail sales rose 7.3 percent m-o-m in June after a revised 12.1 percent m-o-m climb in the previous month (originally a 12.4 percent m-o-m surge), better than economists’ forecast of a 5.0 percent m-o-m gain.

In y-o-y terms, the U.S. retail sales increased 1.1 percent in June after a revised 5.6 decrease in the previous month (originally a 6.1 percent drop). This was the first increase since February.

The data from the Labor Department revealed on Thursday the number of applications for unemployment was higher than expected last week as the U.S. continues to grapple with the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic.

According to the report, the initial claims for unemployment benefits totaled 1,300,000 for the week ended July 11. That brought the number of job losses over the past seventeen weeks (since the U.S. went into coronavirus lockdown in mid-March) to nearly 51.3 million.

Economists had expected 1,250,000 new claims last week.

Claims for the prior week were revised downwardly to 1,310,000 from the initial estimate of 1,314,000.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of claims fell to 1,375,000 from a downwardly revised 1,435,000 in the previous week.

Continuing claims decreased to 17,338,000 million from a downwardly revised 17,760,000 in the previous week.

EUR rose against most other major currencies in the European session on Thursday as the European Central Bank (ECB) made no changes to its policy stance, putting pressure on the EU leaders to overcome their differences on the region's recovery fund.

At its latest monetary policy meeting, the ECB’s policymakers decided to leave its key interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. The Bank also pledged to continue its purchases under pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with a total envelope of EUR1,350 billion. The purchases under the PEPP are to be conducted until at least the end of June 2021 and, in any case, until it judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over. In its policy statement, the ECB also noted that its latest operation in the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) had registered "a very high take-up of funds". The Bank also promised to continue to provide ample liquidity through its refinancing operations as well as to continue purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP) at a monthly pace of €20 billion, together with the purchases under the additional €120 billion temporary envelope until the end of the year.

The announced outcomes were in line with markets' expectations and had little impact on the performance of the European single currency, which gained on hopes for a quick resolution of the disagreements over the EU's recovery fund. It is expected that the ECB's decision to keep policy on hold, will put pressure on the European political leaders to agree on a proposed massive recovery plan for the region at a Friday-Saturday conference in Brussels.

Now, market participants are watching the press conference of the ECB’s president Christine Lagarde, which started at 12:30 GMT.

The European Central Bank (ECB) remained its main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.00 percent on Thursday, as widely expected. Its interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility were also left unchanged at 0.25 percent and -0.50 percent, respectively.

In its latest policy statement, the ECB said:

• Governing Council expects key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon
• Governing Council will continue its purchases under pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) with total envelope of EUR1,350 billion; the purchases will continue to be conducted in a flexible manner over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions
• Governing Council will conduct net asset purchases under PEPP until at least the end of June 2021 and, in any case, until it judges that the coronavirus crisis phase is over
• Governing Council will reinvest principal payments from maturing securities purchased under PEPP until at least the end of 2022
• Net purchases under asset purchase programme (APP) will continue at monthly pace of EUR20 billion, together with the purchases under the additional EUR120 billion temporary envelope until the end of the year
• Monthly net asset purchases under APP are expected to run for as long as necessary to reinforce accommodative impact of its policy rates, and to end shortly before it starts raising the key ECB interest rates
• Governing Council will also continue to provide ample liquidity through its refinancing operations
• Latest operation in third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) has registered a very high take-up of funds
  
• Governing Council continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry

FXStreet notes that EUR/CHF has surged dramatically over the last few days breaking above the crucial 200-day average at 1.0736. A closing break above the 61.8% retracement of the June/July fall at 1.0797 and the 2019 downtrend at 1.0813/29 would reinforce thoughts of a broader change in trend to the upside, per Credit Suisse.

“With the ‘measured objective’ of the large ‘wedge’ base, the 2018 downtrend and the 2019 downtrend just shy above there at 1.0813/29, we expect the market to take pause here. A sustained closing break above here in due course though would reinforce thoughts of a broader change in trend direction to the upside and see pivotal resistance next at the 78.6% retracement at 1.0849/50, ahead of the current year high 1.0915/16, where we would expect the market to find another cap at first.”

“Support is seen initially at 1.0769/57, then 1.0736/33, which ideally holds to keep the immediate upside bias intact. Below here though can see a move back to 1.0702/0696.”

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group see USD/JPY navigating within the 106.70/107.70 range in the near-term, all amidst a generalized mixed outlook.

24-hour view: “Our expectation for USD to consolidate yesterday was wrong as it dropped to a low of 106.65 before ending the day on a soft note at 106.92 (-0.29%). Downward momentum has picked up, albeit not by much and the risk of a sustained decline below 106.65 is not high. Overall, USD is more likely to trade sideways at these lower levels, expected to be between 106.65 and 107.20.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “USD rose to a high of 107.42 yesterday, just a few pips below our ‘strong resistance’ level of 107.45. Downward momentum has eased considerably and our view from Monday (13 Jul, spot at 106.90) wherein USD ‘is expected to trade with a downward bias towards 106.25’ is unlikely to materialize. From here, the outlook is mixed and USD could trade between 106.70 and 107.70 for a while.”

FXStreet notes that equity market indices and economic fundamentals have already decoupled. When the uncertainty subsides, this decoupling will become even more pronounced, which will lead to a tax on buyers of equities, a misallocation of savings and the appearance of bubbles and the risk of a financial crisis if these bubbles burst, per Natixis.  

“The level of uncertainty remains high when it comes to public health (will there be a second wave of the pandemic?), geopolitics (will there be a new wave of US protectionism?) and the economy (how fast will it recover?). Yet we are seeing a clear recovery in equity market indices and the sharp rise in PERs is a clear illustration that indices and fundamentals have decoupled, indices having risen far more than the trajectory of future earnings would imply.”

“When the uncertainty subsides, we should therefore expect equity market indices to be markedly higher than fundamentals. This situation has both microeconomic and macroeconomic consequences: a tax on buyers of equities, since they will buy them at excessive prices, a misallocation of savings, since share prices will no longer give information on the situation of companies and the risk of financial crises, due to the appearance of equity bubbles, then the risk of these bubbles bursting, as we saw in 2000-2001.”

FXStreet reports that Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew reviewed the latest BoJ event.

“In its scheduled Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) today (15 July), the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as widely expected, kept all of its existing monetary policy easing measures unchanged from the 22 May 2020 MPM. Like the previous meetings, this was not a unanimous decision as BOJ policy board member Goshi Kataoka dissented again for similar reasons given in the 22 May MPM.”

“The BOJ also maintained its cautious recovery view unchanged in its July outlook for economic activity… That said, it noted that its outlook in this latest report is ‘extremely uncertain’ and it is based on the highly uncertain assumptions that 1) a second wave of COVID-19 will not occur on a large scale, 2) firms’ and households’ medium and long-term growth expectations will not decline substantially and 3) financial stability with the smooth functioning of financial intermediation.”

“The BOJ projection for economic activity and prices remained weak due to the severity of COVID-19 but the latest revisions impart a marginally more optimistic rebound after FY2020. It’s latest FY2020 GDP contraction is projected to worsen to -5.7% to -4.5% from -5 to -3% in April MPM while the rebound in FY2021 is slightly stronger at +3 to +4% (from +2.8 to +3.9% previously in April MPM).”

“Japan is expected to experience mild deflation (-0.6 to -0.4%) in FY2020 before returning to a very mild inflation of +0.2 to 0.5% in FY2021. Inflation will return to subdued price increases but remains well below the 2% BOJ target in the projection period of FY2020 to FY 2022. It may not exceed 1% on average even in FY2022.”

“We have not changed our view and we still expect the BOJ to do more and enhance its monetary easing stance further in 2H20. However, our long-held view that it will ease via deepening further its negative policy rate is now an increasingly remote possibility, as recent MPMs clearly demonstrated its immense resistance to push rates deeper into negative territory. Instead, we think the BOJ will ease via increasing its JGB purchases. It may also expand its lending facilities to Japanese corporates and SMEs while the ETF and corporate bond buying program may be enhanced (but at a later date in 2H20).”

Petr Krpata, CFA, Chief EMEA FX and IR Strategist at ING, expects the ECB meeting today should be a non-event for the EUR. 

"No new measures are expected to be announced (following a top-up of the PEPP programme in June), the economy is gradually recovering, and the meeting should be more about testing President Christine Lagarde's communication skills rather than any new measures."

"In the short-term, the more important EUR driver is the progress on the EU Recovery fund, as outlined in our EU summit preview with an agreement likely pushing EUR/USD to the 1.15 level."

"So far, the ECB measures have fully compressed the EUR risk premium and with a soft dollar environment to unfold further in coming months, EUR/USD should head higher, above 1.15 this summer and towards 1.20 by the year-end."

FXStreet reports that iron ore has not provided a good signal of AUD directionality for some time and economists at ANZ Bank note that the aussie has had a stronger connection with commodities with a financial aspect such as gold, oil and copper.

“With iron ore prices above USD100/t, many suggest the AUD could be higher. We think this is simplistic and doesn’t account for a fundamentally weaker relationship since 2017.” 

“It’s evident that since 2017 the AUD has traded much more closely with commodities that have a financial aspect: copper, gold and oil. These have higher speculative trading volumes and are generally more subject to the ebbs and flow of broader risk sentiment.”

“The erosion of the AUD’s yield advantage in recent years has left it susceptible to ‘risk-on, risk-off’ episodes, helping to explain its closer ties to ‘financial’ commodities. Trading behaviour since the pandemic shutdowns began in March support this, with equity markets continuing to dictate the direction of the AUD.”

CNBC reports that China is unlikely to use its currency aggressively as a tool against the U.S., even if tensions continue to ramp up between the two economic giants, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist told CNBC.

“I think there’s another trend that’s emerging ... China doesn’t want its currency to be that volatile, or be seen to be a currency which is not seen to be stable enough to be a long time venue for being a reserve currency,” Morgan Stanley’s Chetan Ahya told CNBC on Thursday. The U.S. dollar is currently the world’s reserve currency, but Beijing has been pushing for greater use of the Chinese yuan internationally.

A weaker yuan has previously been a key source of contention between U.S. and the China, with U.S. President Donald Trump accusing Beijing of intentionally letting its currency slide lower. A weaker yuan makes Chinese exports more attractive, giving them a competitive advantage in international markets, some experts argue.

Last year, the Trump administration labeled China as a currency manipulator after Beijing allowed the yuan to weaken to 7 against the dollar — a closely watched psychological level — for the first time in 11 years.

According to the report from Eurostat, in May 2020, the COVID-19 containment measures widely introduced by the Member States continued to have a significant impact on international trade in goods. The first estimates for international trade in goods show that the results for both the euro area and the EU are considerably lower than those recorded in May 2019. 

The first estimate for euro area exports of goods to the rest of the world in May 2020 was €143.3 billion, a decrease of 29.5% compared with May 2019 (€203.4 bn). Imports from the rest of the world stood at €133.9 bn, a fall of 26.7% compared with May 2019 (€182.7 bn). As a result, the euro area recorded a €9.4 bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in May 2020, compared with +€20.7 bn in May 2019. Intra-euro area trade fell to €125.3 bn in May 2020, down by 27.9% compared with May 2019.

In January to May 2020, euro area exports of goods to the rest of the world fell to €845.8 bn (a decrease of 13.1% compared with January - May 2019), and imports fell to €779.7 bn (a decrease of 13.1% compared with January May 2019). As a result the euro area recorded a surplus of €66.1 bn, compared with +€76.5 bn in January-May 2019. Intra-euro area trade fell to €719.1 bn in January-May 2020, down by 14.7% compared with January-May 2019.

Reuters reports that americans who received enhanced unemployment benefits due to the coronavirus pandemic spent more than when they were working, a study released on Thursday said, adding to concerns about a steep fall in spending when the emergency benefits expire.

The $600 weekly supplement added to jobless benefits as part of the CARES Act helped unemployed households spend 10% more after receiving benefits than they did before the pandemic, according to research by the JPMorgan Chase Institute.

Researchers analyzed transactions for 61,000 households that received unemployment benefits between March and May. Spending dropped for all households as the virus spread and led to business shutdowns, but then rose when households began receiving jobless benefits, the study found.

That contrasts with a typical recession, when households receiving unemployment benefits usually cut spending by 7% because regular jobless benefits amount to only a fraction of a person’s prior earnings, the research found.

The analysis highlighted how the additional unemployment benefits are helping to prop up the U.S. economy and consumer spending after the pandemic led to a surge in joblessness across the country.

More than 30 million Americans are estimated to be receiving unemployment benefits - and they could be pushed off an income cliff when the supplemental benefits, which are due to expire at the end of July, are withdrawn.

“Our estimates suggest that expiration will result in large spending cuts, with potentially negative effects on both households and macroeconomic activity,” the researchers wrote.

The data also reflected the financial pain faced by households that encountered big delays in collecting benefits after states across the country were overwhelmed by applications.

Households that had to wait several weeks for their first unemployment check to arrive cut spending by about 20%, the study found. Spending recovered after the checks arrived.

FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group believe USD/CNH remains poised to extend the downside in the near-term.

24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that USD ‘could decline but prospect for a break of last week’s low at 6.9815 is not high’. USD subsequently dropped to a low of 6.9820 before closing on a soft note at 6.9820 (-0.43%). Downward momentum has improved slightly and from here, USD could weaken to 6.9740. The next support at 6.9650 is unlikely to come into the picture. Resistance is at 6.9930 but the stronger level is close to 6.9980.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to our update from Monday (13 Jul, spot at 7.0050). As highlighted, USD could weaken to 6.9650 with lower odds for extension to 6.9500. Only a break of 7.0180 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 7.0390) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.”

Reuters reports that China said on Thursday it hopes the Phase 1 trade deal it reached with the United States can still be implemented and reiterated its willingness to stick to the agreement despite recent U.S. sanctions against Chinese officials and firms.

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters during a daily briefing that some in the United States were always oppressing and bullying China and said Beijing must act to reject and respond to such practices.

FXStreet reports that further rangebound between 0.6495 and 0.6620 is expected in NZD/USD in the next weeks, noted FX Strategists at UOB Group.

24-hour view: “NZD traded between 0.6525 and 0.6582 yesterday, wider than our expected range of 0.6525/0.6570.While further consolidation would not be surprising, the firmed underlying tone suggests a higher trading range of 0.6535/0.6595.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “On Tuesday (14 Jul, spot at 0.6535), we held the view that NZD ‘could edge lower but any weakness is viewed as part of a 0.6450/0.6595 range’. However, NZD rose towards the top of the expected range instead (overnight high of 0.6582). While the prospect for NZD to edge lower to 0.6450 has diminished, NZD does not appear to be ready to move higher in a sustained manner. In other words, NZD could trade sideways from here, likely within a broad 0.6495/0.6620 range.”

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar showed slight changes against the euro and the Japanese yen.

Traders are waiting for the results of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which will be summed up later on Thursday.

The regulator is likely to keep the key rate at the current level and will not make changes to the quantitative easing program, experts believe. At the same time, the ECB will try not to dispel hopes that it still has the tools to help the economy.

The ICE Dollar index, which shows the value of the dollar against six major world currencies, rose by 0.05% relative to the previous trading day.

The Australian dollar fell 0.18% against the US dollar on the back of data on the Australian labor market. Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 7.4% in June from 7.1% a month earlier. The index was the highest since November 1998.

According to the report from INSEE, in June 2020, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% over a month, as in the previous month. Energy prices rebounded over a month (+1.8% after −2.1% in May). Those of services slowed down, to +0.3% after +0.4%. Tobacco prices were stable, after +0.4% in the previous month. The drop in manufactured product prices was higher (−0.3% after −0.1%), and food prices sharply fell back (−0.8% after +0.5%).

Seasonally adjusted, consumer prices rose by 0.1% in June, after a stability in May.

Year on year, consumer prices rose by 0.2%, after +0.4% in the previous month. This drop in inflation came from a slowdown in services and food prices and a sharper drop in manufactured product prices. Contrariwise, the fall in energy prices was attenuated. Finally, tobacco prices rose at the same pace as in the previous month.

Year on year, core inflation fell, in June, to +0.3% after +0.6% in the previous month. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 0.1% over a month, after +0.2% in the previous month; year on year, it slowed down, to +0.2%, after +0.4% in the previous month.

eFXdata reports that Bank of America Global Research discusses its expectations for ECB July policy meeting. 

The ECB meeting should be a placeholder, but communication challenges point to risks, in our view. Eurozone data have been improving during the reopening, but due to base effects and consistent with (or in some cases lower than) expectations. COVID infection rates have stabilized to very low levels, but recent pockets of new infections suggest to us that full reopening is not yet an option," BofA notes. 

"Ahead of the important EU summit on the Recovery Fund, we do not see the ECB meeting as having much of a sustained EUR impact. The communication challenges we have discussed above could affect the EUR during the press conference, but absent a mishap, the main event for the week is the EU Summit. At some point later in the year, we would expect the ECB to try to address the sustained damage the economy has suffered from the COVID crisis, affecting the EUR as a result, but we may not be there yet.

The risk from the meeting is if the ECB comes across too positive, which although in the short term could support the EUR, it would lead to negative economic outcomes in the longer term and eventually contribute to EUR weakness," BofA adds.

According to the report from Office for National Statistics, March to May figures show weakening employment rates, with self-employed and part-time workers seeing reductions; despite these falls, unemployment is not rising, because of increases in people out of work, but not currently looking for work; the reduction in total hours worked is a record both on the year and the quarter despite a third of the period covered being prior to the implementation of coronavirus (COVID-19) measures.

The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.4%, 0.3 percentage points higher than a year earlier but 0.2 percentage points down on the previous quarter.

The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.9%, 0.1 percentage points higher than a year earlier but largely unchanged compared with the previous quarter. Economists had expected an increase to 4.2%.

The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at 20.4%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous year but 0.2 percentage points up on the previous quarter.

The total number of weekly hours worked was 877.1 million, down a record 175.3 million hours on the previous year and down a record 175.1 million hours on the previous quarter.

Employee pay growth slowed noticeably in April and maintained a similar pattern in May. Pay is now growing slower than inflation, especially in industries where furloughing is most prominent.

Growth in average total pay (including bonuses) among employees slowed sharply in March to May to be negative (at negative 0.3%) for the first time since April to June 2014; regular pay growth (excluding bonuses) slowed to 0.7%. Single month growth in average weekly earnings for May 2020 was negative 1.2% for total pay and 0% for regular pay.

RTTNews reports that China's gross domestic product surged a seasonally adjusted 11.5 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - beating expectations for a gain of 9.6 percent following the 9.8 percent decline in the previous three months.

On a yearly basis, GDP advanced 3.2 percent - again topping forecasts for an increase of 2.5 percent after tumbling 6.8 percent in the three months prior.

The bureau also said that industrial production gained 4.8 percent on year in June, beating forecasts for 4.7 percent and up from 4.4 percent in May.

Retail sales fell 1.8 percent on year, shy of expectations for a gain of 0.3 percent after slipping 2.8 percent in the previous month.

Fixed asset investment was down an annual 3.1 percent, beating forecasts for a fall of 3.3 percent after sinking 6.3 percent a month earlier.

House prices in China were up 4.9 percent on year in June, unchanged from the previous month.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1493 (5442)

$1.1472 (1777)

$1.1456 (1734)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1401

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1329 (428)

$1.1299 (243)

$1.1265 (714)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 52724 contracts (according to data from July, 15) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1400 (5442);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2753 (1780)

$1.2693 (1372)

$1.2649 (654)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2556

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2437 (458)

$1.2402 (1146)

$1.2364 (1515)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date August, 7 is 19380 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (3032);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date August, 7 is 19231  contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2400 (1515);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.99 versus 0.99 from the previous trading day according to data from July, 15

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.