Tin tức thì trường

(pare/closed(GMT +2)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,1440 +0,57%

GBP/USD $1,3003 +0,58%

USD/CHF Chf0,9558 -0,39%

USD/JPY Y112,12 -0,14%

EUR/JPY Y128,27 +0,43%

GBP/JPY Y145,78 +0,45%

AUD/USD $0,7682 +0,57%

NZD/USD $0,7298 -0,12%

USD/CAD C$1,3002 -0,24%

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI June 54.5

01:00 China Manufacturing PMI June 51.2 51

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y May 4.9%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m May 0.4% 0.4%

05:00 Japan Construction Orders, y/y May -0.2%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y May 1.9% -1.5%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted May -0.2% 0.3%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y May -0.9% 2.5%

06:45 France CPI, y/y (Preliminary) June 0.8%

06:45 France CPI, m/m (Preliminary) June 0.1% 0%

07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator June 101.6 102.5

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change June -9 -10

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. June 5.7% 5.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter I -12.1 -17.3

08:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, y/y (Finally) Quarter I -0.9% 0.8%

08:30 United Kingdom Business Investment, q/q (Finally) Quarter I -0.9% 0.6%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter I 0.7% 0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y (Finally) Quarter I 1.9% 2%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y (Preliminary) June 0.9%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Preliminary) June 1.4% 1.2%

12:00 Eurozone ECB's Benoit Coeure Speaks

12:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index, y/y May 6.3%

12:30 Canada Industrial Product Price Index, m/m May 0.6% 0.3%

12:30 Canada GDP (m/m) April 0.5% 0.2%

12:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m May 0.4% 0.3%

12:30 U.S. Personal spending May 0.4% 0.1%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y May 1.5% 1.4%

12:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m May 0.2% 0.1%

13:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index June 59.4 58

14:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Finally) June 97.1 94.5

14:30 Canada Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey

17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count June 758

• Trump administration will get to tax reform in september

• White House working non-stop with senate on health care bill

• White House thinks an agreement can be reached that Trump can sign

EURUSD: 1.1300 (EUR 750m) 1.1320-30 (715m) 1.1340-50 (1bln) 1.1400-10 (1.9bln)

USDJPY: 111.00 (USD 810m) 111.50 (430m) 111.90-112.00 (555m) 112.40 (330m)113.00-05 (732m)

GBPUSD: 1.2940-50 (GBP 185m) 1.3000 (430m)

EURGBP: 0.8710-20 (EUR 595m) 0.8800 (300m)

AUDUSD: 0.7540-50 (AUD 240m) 0.7635 (635m) 0.7700 (765m) 0.7750 (650m)

USDCAD: 1.2980 (USD 290m)

In the week ending June 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 241,000 to 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 242,250, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 244,750 to 245,000.

The inflation rate in Germany as measured by the consumer price index is expected to be 1.6% in June 2017. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.2% on May 2017.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.2 percent.

With the third estimate for the first quarter, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and exports increased more than previously estimated, but the general picture of economic growth remains the same.

• Sufficient trust cannot be created without adhering to rules that would help further develop currency union

• Doesn't see willingness to shift decision-making power to european level

• Sees Q2 Spain GDP rising 0.9 pct q/q

While the 12-month growth rate for broad money overall has been at around the current level since November 2016, the growth in households' money has continued to weaken and private non-financial corporations' (PNFCs') has strengthened. In May, households' money fell by £0.1 billion, this being the weakest flow since January 2015.

In contrast, M4 flows for PNFCs and non-intermediate other financial corporations (NIOFCs) were higher than their recent averages.

Sterling lending to the UK private sector excluding intermediate other financial corporations increased by £11.0 billion in May. Net lending flows to all sectors were higher than last month.

According to the flash estimate issued by the INE, the annual inflation of the CPI in June 2017 is 1.5%. This indicator provides a preview of the CPI that, if confirmed, would imply a decrease of four tenths in its annual rate, given that in May this change was 1.9%. It is worth nothing in this behaviour the decrease in the prices of fuels (diesel and gasoline/petrol), compared to the increase that they experienced last year. This evolution was also due to the increase in prices of electricity, lower than that of June 2016.

In turn, the annual variation of the flash estimate of the HICP in June stands at 1.6%. If confirmed, the annual change of the HICP would decrease four tenths as compared to the previous month.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1497 (2658)

$1.1472 (2181)

$1.1443 (3682)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1409

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1358 (643)

$1.1326 (1163)

$1.1287 (2065)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 70074 contracts (according to data from June, 28) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1100 (4595);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.3084 (2125)

$1.3052 (2150)

$1.3026 (2686)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2961

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2892 (769)

$1.2862 (1848)

$1.2825 (1443)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 7 is 33801 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2850 (2686);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 7 is 31736 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2800 (3722);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.94 versus 0.89 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 28

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• Information gathered from markets is critical complement to bank's analytical work; helps shape bank policies

Business confidence lifted in June and broader survey sentiment also rose.

Firms are upbeat about their own prospects, and keen to hire and invest.

Our composite growth indicator is pointing to 4% GDP growth.

That's a stretch, but the economy is running faster than current real GDP

growth (2.5%) would suggest. Expect "official" growth to lift.

Inflation expectations are anchored at 2%.

The economy has good upwind speed. A net 25% of businesses are optimistic about the year ahead. That's up 10 points on the month prior and is the highest level since September 2016. Sentiment lifted across all sectors but most notably for agriculture. The service sector sits at the bow (+33).

The upswing in mood among German consumers continues in June this year. Both economic and income expectations, as well as propensity to buy, are on the rise. GfK predicts an increase in consumer climate of 0.2 points to 10.6 points for July compared to the previous month.

German citizens view the domestic economy as being in excellent shape at the start of the summer. This is shown in the significant increase in economic expectations in June, taking them to a three year high. Income expectations are increasing moderately and have even climbed to their highest level since the German reunification. Propensity to consume is able to benefit from this with moderate growth.

From the point of view of the consumer, the German economic engine is still accelerating. Economic outlook climbs in June for the fourth time in a row. After gaining a significant 6.5 points, the indicator has now reached 41.3 points. This is the highest level for almost three years. The last time a higher value was measured, was 45.9 points in July 2014.