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30.11.2012
19:21
American focus: euro rose to a more than one- month high against the dollar

 

 

The euro rose to a more than one- month high against the dollar as German lawmakers approved Greece’s latest rescue package amid optimism U.S. politicians will agree on a new budget.

The euro gained versus most major peers as legislators in Germany’s lower house of parliament, or Bundestag, voted 473-100 to ratify an agreement forged among euro-area finance ministers on Nov. 27 to cut the rates on Greece’s bailout loans, suspend interest payments for a decade, give the country more time to repay and engineer a buyback of its bonds.

The yen slid to the weakest in seven months versus the shared currency after data showed Japan’s consumer prices stagnated in October, adding to speculation the central bank will increase stimulus to spur inflation.

The yen fell versus the majority of its 16 most-traded peers as Japan’s consumer prices excluding fresh food were unchanged in October from a year earlier after a 0.1 percent decline in September, the statistics bureau said in Tokyo today. The BOJ has an annual inflation target of 1 percent.

The Japanese currency was set for its biggest monthly decline versus the euro since February as Japan opposition leader Shinzo Abe called for measures to boost inflation. The nation will hold elections on Dec. 16 for the lower house of parliament, which determines who will be prime minister.


17:58
Boehner said "there is a stalemate" on fiscal cliff. Are "almost nowhere" right now.

 

Easing lower, Dow down about 30 points after Boehner says there is a stalemate in "Cliff" talks. Nasdaq is down 9.


 

17:18
President Obama: All agree on need to extend middle class tax cuts

 

 

Middle class tax cut now would give time for broader deal


16:01
EUR / USD was trading at $ 1.3000, retreating from session highs

 

 

EUR / USD started to decline before the report of consumer spending in the New York session, reaching a low of $ 1.2968. Oversold couple forced to retreat, recover the loss, and then it rose to highs after a report of Chicago PMI, which exceeded $ 50 but was below forecasts.

RBC also reduced the outlook for U.S. GDP in Q4 from 1.0% y / y to 0.2% on the back of weakening consumer spending in the 4th quarter and the impact of Hurricane Sandy. Market forecasters expected value of 1.7%.

Rally pair reached a session high of $ 1.3022, up 6 pips below the daily high of $ 1.3027. Investors spend the rest of the day, in response to news about the "fiscal cliff."


14:45
U.S.: Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index , November 50.4 (forecast 51.2)
13:45
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut:

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3020

USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.15, Y82.25, Y82.40, Y82.50, Y82.95

EUR/JPY Y107.00

GBP/USD $1.6025

EUR/GBP stg0.8100, stg0.8085

USD/CHF Chf0.9150

AUD/USD $1.0370, $1.0450

USD/CAD C$0.9970


13:33
U.S.: PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y, October +1.6% (forecast +1.7%)
13:33
U.S.: PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y, October +1.6% (forecast +1.7%)
13:31
U.S.: PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m, October +0.1% (forecast +0.2%)
13:30
U.S.: Personal spending , October -0.2% (forecast +0.2%)
13:30
U.S.: Personal Income, m/m, October 0.0% (forecast +0.2%)
13:30
Canada: GDP (m/m) , September 0.0% (forecast +0.1%)
13:15
European session: The yen fell sharply

Data

00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence November -30 -30 -22

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m October +0.3% +0.3% +0.1%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y October +4.0% +4.1% +3.8%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y October +15.5% +10.3% +25.2%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted October +1.5% -0.3% -2.8%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y October -3.1% -0.3% -0.8%

07:45 France Consumer spending October 0.0% -0.1% -0.2%

07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y October -0.3% -0.4% -0.5%

08:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator November 1.67 1.61 1.50

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) November +2.5% +2.4% +2.2%

10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate October 11.6% 11.7% 11.7%


The yen fell to its lowest level in seven months against the euro after data showed that Japan's consumer prices were unchanged in October, which led to the fact that the Prime Minister of Japan Yoshihiko Noda approved a second round of economic stimulus in an attempt to provide push the economy ahead of the elections to be held in December. Note that the new package, which cost 880 billion yen ($ 10.7 billion) will be financed from budget reserves, avoiding it-sale debt. This package is more than twice the size of the stimulus measures that were announced in October. Also, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said that industrial production in Japan rose 1.8% in October, showing the first increase in four months. However, the ministry maintained its assessment that "manufacturing is in a downtrend."
The Japanese currency fell against all 16 major currencies, while fixing its biggest monthly decline against the euro.
Euro rose after German lawmakers approved last rescue package for Greece (473 for, 100 against)
The dollar fell to a five-week low against the single currency against the fact that Democrats and Republicans argued over spending cuts and tax increases to prevent so-called "financial cliff"
The pound fell to a five-week low against the euro on speculation that European policy makers are taking steps to stem the debt crisis in the region, causing a decline in demand for relatively safe assets the UK.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose sharply, setting all-time high at $ 1.3026, on later fell to $ 1.2990
GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6063, but then fell to $ 1.6013, while setting a new low
USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair has set high at Y82.75

At 13:30 GMT, Canada will become aware of any change in GDP in September, changes in GDP for the quarter year on year in Q3. At the same time, the U.S. leaves the main index for personal consumption expenditures, deflator of personal consumption expenditures for October, as well as data on changes in the level of spending for October. Finish the day at 14:45 GMT U.S. Chicago PMI index publication in November.

12:46
Orders

EUR/USD

Offers $1.3070, $1.3050, $1.3030

Bids $1.2940, $1.2920/15, $1.2905/00, $1.2880, $1.2860

 

GBP/USD

Offers $1.6215/20, $1.6175/80, $1.6140/50, $1.6120/25, $1.6080/85

Bids $1.6005/00, $1.5965/55, $1.5940-20


AUD/USD

Offers $1.0525, $1.0490, $1.0460, $1.0445/50

Bids  $1.0400, $1.0355/50


USD/JPY

Offers Y83.00, Y82.94, Y82.80

Bids Y82.35/30, Y82.05/00, Y81.80


EUR/JPY

Offers Y109.00, Y108.50, Y108.00

Bids Y107.00, Y106.80, Y106.50, Y106.20/15


EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.8195/200, stg0.8125, stg0.81165

Bids stg0.8065/60, stg0.8040/35, stg0.8025/20, stg0.8005/00


10:30
Option expiries for today's 1400GMT cut

 

 

EUR/USD $1.2900, $1.2950, $1.3000, $1.3020

 

USD/JPY Y82.00, Y82.15, Y82.25, Y82.40, Y82.50, Y82.95

EUR/JPY Y107.00

GBP/USD $1.6025

EUR/GBP stg0.8100, stg0.8085

USD/CHF Chf0.9150

AUD/USD $1.0370, $1.0450

USD/CAD C$0.9970


 

10:02
Eurozone: Unemployment Rate , October 11.7% (forecast 11.7%)
10:02
Eurozone: Harmonized CPI, Y/Y, November +2.2% (forecast +2.4%)
08:51
Forex: Thursday’s review

 


Yesterday the
dollar declined for a second day against the euro as U.S. lawmakers publicly wrangled over the spending cuts and tax increases of the so-called fiscal cliff.

The greenback was mixed against higher-yielding currencies after a report showed the U.S. economy grew more than previously estimated in the third quarter and House Speaker John Boehner said “no substantive progress” was made in budget talks.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Democrats were all on the same page on budget talks and Senator Chuck Schumer said there has been progress. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said Boehner’s comments were a “tactic.”

The euro gained against the majority of its 16 most-traded peers as Italy’s benchmark bonds gained for a third day as borrowing costs declined at a debt auction.

Spain’s 10-year bond yield dropped to the lowest level in eight months while similar-maturity Italian yields declined to the least in two years, signaling the debt crisis that has weighed on the shared currency since 2010 may be easing.


08:02
Switzerland: KOF Leading Indicator, November 1.50 (forecast 1.61)
07:48
France: Consumer spending, y/y, October -0.5% (forecast -0.4%)
07:48
France: Consumer spending , October -0.2% (forecast -0.1%)
07:31
ECB'S DRAGHI: Centralized supervision should apply to all banks

 

The key word for jobs, growth is competitiveness

Need to reduce rigidity in labour, products, services

Now is time for extra effort to reinforce integration

ECB takes seriously its new power as bank supervisor

Understand need for greater accountability


07:30
ECB'S DRAGHI: Centralized supervision should apply to all banks

 

The key word for jobs, growth is competitiveness

Need to reduce rigidity in labour, products, services

Now is time for extra effort to reinforce integration

ECB takes seriously its new power as bank supervisor

Understand need for greater accountability

07:23
Asian session: The yen slid

 

 

00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence November -30 -30 -22

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m October +0.3% +0.3% +0.1%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y October +4.0% +4.1% +3.8%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y October +15.5% +10.3% +25.2%

 

The yen slid to a seven-month low versus the euro after data showed Japan’s consumer prices stagnated last month, fanning speculation the central bank will increase stimulus to spur inflation. Japan’s consumer prices excluding fresh food were unchanged in October from a year earlier after a 0.1 percent decline in September, the statistics bureau said in Tokyo today. The BOJ has an annual inflation target of 1 percent. Economy Minister Seiji Maehara said today that concern over Japan’s economy is increasing and that he wants to cooperate with the BOJ to end deflation.

Shinzo Abe, leader of Japan’s opposition Liberal Democratic Party, yesterday reiterated his call for the Bank of Japan to pump unlimited cash into the financial system until inflation reaches 2 percent. Abe’s LDP had an approval rating of 23 percent, compared with 13 percent for the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, the Nikkei newspaper reported yesterday, citing a Nov. 26-28 opinion poll. The nation will hold elections on Dec. 16 for the lower house of parliament.

The dollar was near a one-month low against the euro as Democrats and Republicans wrangled over the spending cuts and tax increases of the so-called fiscal cliff looming for the U.S. in January. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner offered Republican House Speaker John Boehner a proposal to avert an end-of-the- year fiscal cliff that would trade $1.6 trillion in tax increases for $400 billion in unspecified entitlement-program cuts, a Republican aide said, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.

After meeting Geithner yesterday, Boehner said President Barack Obama must “get serious” about the fiscal cliff talks. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said Democrats need a proposal from Republicans on what sort of spending cuts they want.


EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $1.3005.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to yesterday's low.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y82.55.


07:02
Germany: Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y, October -0.8% (forecast -0.3%)
07:01
Germany: Retail sales, real adjusted , October -2.8% (forecast -0.3%)
06:18
Currencies. Daily history for Nov 29'2012:

(pare/closed(00:00 GMT +02:00)/change, %)

EUR/USD $1,2978 +0,20%

GBP/USD $1,6039 +0,16%

USD/CHF Chf0,9273 -0,20%

USD/JPY Y82,10 +0,04%

EUR/JPY Y106,59 +0,27%

GBP/JPY Y131,69 +0,21%

AUD/USD $1,0434 -0,39%

NZD/USD $0,8225 -0,13%

USD/CAD C$0,9921 +0,02%


06:02
Schedule for today, Friday, Nov 30’2012:

00:01 United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence November -30 -30 -22

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m October +0.3% +0.3% +0.1%

00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y October +4.0% +4.1% +3.8%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y October +15.5% +10.3%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted October +1.5% -0.3%

07:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y October -3.1% -0.3%

07:45 France Consumer spending October +0.1% -0.1%

07:45 France Consumer spending, y/y October -0.3% -0.4%

07:45 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator November 1.67 1.61

10:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (preliminary) November +2.5% +2.4%

10:00 Eurozone Unemployment Rate October 11.6% 11.7%

13:30 Canada GDP (m/m) September -0.1% +0.1%

13:30 U.S. Personal Income, m/m October +0.4% +0.2%

13:30 U.S. Personal spending October +0.8% +0.2%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, m/m October +0.1% +0.2%

13:30 U.S. PCE price index ex food, energy, Y/Y October +1.7% +1.7%

14:45 U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index November 49.9 51.2

22:00 U.S. FOMC Member Jeremy Stein Speaks

05:02
Japan: Housing Starts, y/y, October +25.2% (forecast +10.3%)

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