Tin tức thì trường

EUR/USD: $1.2000(E2.0bn), $1.2100(E793mn), $1.2200(E482mn), $1.2300(E2.7bn)

USD/JPY: Y120.00($5.18bn), Y122.00($1.2bn)

GBP/USD: $1.5350(stg362mn), $1.5650(stg356mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8000(A$501mn), $0.8500(A$302mn)

NZD/USD: $0.7715(NZ$335mn)

EUR/USD

Offers $1.2270-73, $1.2200

Bids $1.2100, $1.2000

GBP/USD

Offers $1.5600/10

Bids $1.5500, $1.5480, $1.5465/50, $1.5430-20, $1.5400

AUD/USD

Offers $0.8250, $0.8195/00

Bids $0.8060-50, $0.8000, $0.7950

EUR/JPY

Offers Y148.00, Y147.50, Y146.25, Y146.00

Bids

USD/JPY

Offers Y122.00, Y121.50, Y121.20, Y120.90/1.10, Y120.00

Bids Y119.20/00

EUR/GBP

Offers stg0.7950/55, stg0.7900, stg0.7880/85, stg0.7860-70

Bids stg0.7800

EUR/USD: $1.2000(E2.0bn), $1.2100(E793mn), $1.2200(E482mn), $1.2300(E2.7bn)

USD/JPY: Y120.00($5.18bn), Y122.00($1.2bn)

GBP/USD: $1.5350(stg362mn), $1.5650(stg356mn)

AUD/USD: $0.8000(A$501mn), $0.8500(A$302mn)

NZD/USD: $0.7715(NZ$335mn)

REUTERS

Mysterious FX cycle may challenge yen bears in 2015

Dec 30 (Reuters) - Yen bears betting that the Japanese currency will keep declining for a few more years could be wrong-footed based on a mysterious 8-year pricing cycle that has proved accurate over the past four decades.

That cycle calls for a long-term high in the dollar against the yen in 2015. That would run counter to the view of many currency specialists who expect the dollar, which hit a 7-1/2 year high against the yen this month, to keep rising beyond 2015.

Since the introduction of a floating rate exchange system in 1973, the dollar has peaked against the yen every eight years with clockwork precision.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/29/markets-forex-yen-idUSL3N0UA1RY20141229

BLOOMBERG

Samaras Has Four Weeks to Trump Syriza on Greek Economy

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras failed to convince lawmakers to stay the economic course he's set. He now has less than four weeks to persuade Greece's voters to do the same.

Samaras is due to meet with President Karolos Papoulias in Athens today to request early elections on Jan. 25 having steered the country at the epicenter of Europe's debt crisis out of recession. That gives him a chance to reel in the opposition Syriza party's lead in the polls as it pushes to abandon the austerity measures tied to Greece's bailout that are credited in Berlin and Brussels for the nascent recovery.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-29/samaras-has-four-weeks-to-trump-syriza-on-greek-economy.html

THE NEW ZEALAND HERALD

Rocky times ahead as crashing oil prices change geopolitical landscape

The oil price decline of 2014 upended the geopolitical chessboard. Worth watching in 2015 will be who can recover and dominate play - Opec, Vladimir Putin or US shale drillers.

Oil's international benchmark price dropped as much as 49 per cent this year. Those looking for a quick rebound may be disappointed, as world consumption growth slowed to the least since 2009, US companies pumped more than they have since the 1980s and a price war broke out among members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"It's a turning point in the way people perceive Opec, that this so-called cartel is not really driving prices," said Jeff Colgan, a professor at Brown University's Watson Institute for International Studies who researches the geopolitics of energy

Source: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=11380065

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index December +0.3% +0.3% +0.2%

07:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y December +8.5% +7.7% +7.2%

The greenback traded stronger against its major peers, only losing against the Japanese yen. The euro dipped to a fresh two-year low amid concerns over Greece's political turmoil as the ruling coalition was not able to secure enough votes in the third and final run to elect Stavros Dimas president. Now snap elections will be held next month on January 25^th, where the left-wing Syriza party could win, putting the international bailout at risk.

The Australian dollar is trading lower during the Asian session. The aussie almost lost 9% so far in 2014. Falling commodity prices and concerns over China's economy, Australia's biggest trade partner, weigh on the currency.

New Zealand's dollar declined slightly against the greenback after yesterday's gains and is heading for a 5% decline in 2014 after trading close to its post-float high earlier in the year which led the central bank to intervene.

The Japanese yen traded slightly stronger above USD120 as Asian shares retreated, fuelling demand for a safe haven. On Saturday the Japanese Government approved a 3.5 Trillion Yen fiscal stimulus to strengthen its economy and restore the country's public finances. Since the end of 2011 the Japanese currency slid more than 36%

EUR/USD: the euro declined versus the greenback

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

09:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y November +2.5% +2.6%

09:00 Eurozone Private Loans, Y/Y November -1.1% -0.9%

14:00 U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, y/y October +4.9% +4.4%

15:00 U.S. Consumer confidence December 88.7 94.6

21:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventories December +5.4

EUR / USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2269 (1031)

$1.2223 (124)

$1.2194 (383)

Price at time of writing this review: $ 1.2129

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2096 (5965)

$1.2071 (3300)

$1.2042 (4248)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 9 is 57467 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (6330);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 9 is 61101 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2000 (7113);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.06 versus 1.09 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 29

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.5801 (2065)

$1.5702 (2505)

$1.5604 (1250)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.5515

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.5493 (2111)

$1.5396 (1169)

$1.5298 (1307)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date January, 9 is 25087 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5850 (4020);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date January, 9 is 20474 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,5500 (2111);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.82 versus 0.82 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 29

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.