Tin tức thì trường

Total inventories of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were $652.1 billion at the end of October, up 0.8 percent from the revised September level. Total inventories were up 6.9 percent from the revised October 2017 level. The September 2018 to October 2018 percent change was revised from the advance estimate of up 0.7 percent to up 0.8 percent (±0.4 percent).

The October inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.28. The October 2017 ratio was 1.28.

U.S. stock-index futures were flat on Friday, as investors digested weak jobs report, which eased concern about an aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the Fed next year.

Global Stocks:

• Production Cut to Start From Jan. 1

• OPEC Still to Meet With Non-OPEC Producers

• OPEC Production Cut to Be Reviewed in April

• Non-OPEC Producers Proposing to Cut 400,000 B/D

• OPEC, Non-OPEC Collaboration to Continue in 2019

• Russia Oil Min Thanks Saudi Arabia for Stabilizing Oil Market

• Russia Oil Min Expects to Reach Mutual Understanding With OPEC

• Russia Oil Min, OPEC President Don't Expressly Mention Production Cut Ahead of Closed Session

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Tesla (TSLA) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies

The unemployment rate decreased 0.2 percentage points to 5.6%, the lowest since comparable data became available in 1976.

In the 12 months to November, employment grew by 219,000 or 1.2%, reflecting gains in full-time work (+227,000 or +1.5%). Over the same period, total hours worked were up 2.1%.

Employment increased in six provinces, led by Quebec and Alberta, and was little changed in the four Atlantic provinces.

More people worked in professional, scientific and technical services; health care and social assistance; construction; business, building and other support services; transportation and warehousing; and agriculture. At the same time, fewer people worked in information, culture and recreation.

Employment increased for private sector employees, while it was little changed for public sector employees. The number of self-employed was also little changed.

Employment increased for both core-aged women and men (aged 25 to 54), as well as for older people (aged 55 and over)—driven by men.

In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents to $27.35. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 81 cents, or 3.1 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 7 cents to $22.95 in November.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 155,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing.

In November, the unemployment rate was 3.7 percent for the third month in a row, and the number of unemployed persons was little changed at 6.0 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 0.4 percentage point and 641,000, respectively.

Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.9 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.6 percent, were unchanged in November.

• Russia Will Keep Working With OPEC Next Year

The number of persons employed increased by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU28 in the third quarter of 2018 compared with the previous quarter. In the second quarter of 2018, employment increased by 0.4% in both zones.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, employment increased by 1.3% in the euro area and by 1.2% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2018 (after +1.5% and +1.3% respectively in the second quarter of 2018). These data on employment provide a picture of labour input consistent with the output and income measure of national accounts.

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% in the euro area (EA19) and by 0.3% in the EU28 during the third quarter of 2018, compared with the previous quarter, according to an estimate published by Eurostat.

In the second quarter of 2018, GDP had grown by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU28. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.8% in the EU28 in the third quarter of 2018, after +2.2% and +2.1% respectively in the previous quarter.

During the third quarter of 2018, GDP in the United States increased by 0.9% compared with the previous quarter (after +1.0% in the second quarter of 2018). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP grew by 3.0% (after +2.9% in the previous quarter).

• Saudi Energy Min Arrives at OPEC Meet for Second Day of Talks on Oil Production Cut

In October 2018, the retail trade index remained flat in the three-month on three-month movement (value 0.0% and volume +0.1%).

When compared with September 2018, both value and volume of retail trade stayed relatively flat, increasing by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

Notwithstanding the general slowdown to growth in the seasonally adjusted series, year-on-year estimates of retail trade show a rise, as the value was up 1.5% and volume was up 1.6%.

Increases were seen across both large scale distribution (+1.1%) and small scale distribution (+0.5%) when compared with October 2017. Internet sales increased by 24.4%, showing the largest year-on-year rise since July 2017.

• Prices in the three months to November were 0.3% higher than in the same three months a year earlier – slowing from the 1.5% annual growth recorded in October, and recording the lowest rate of growth since December 2012

• House prices in the latest quarter (September-November) were 1.1% lower than in the preceding three months (June - August)

• On a monthly basis, house prices fell by 1.4% in November, making three monthly falls out of the last four

• The average house price is now £224,578

In October 2018, output bounced back in the manufacturing industry (+1.4% after −1.9% in September), as well as in the whole industry (+1.2% after −1.6%).

Manufacturing output was virtually stable over the last three months and it grew slightly in the whole industry (+0.2%).

Over the last three months, output increased in “other manufacturing” (+0.7%) and in the manufacture of machinery and equipment goods (+0.9%). It expanded sharply in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (+8.1%). It grew also slightly in mining and quarrying, energy, water supply (+0.3%). Conversely, it diminished in the manufacture of transport equipment (−1.7%) and in the manufacture of food products and beverages (−1.2%).

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1502 (4424)

$1.1455 (3608)

$1.1416 (5226)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1371

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1338 (2657)

$1.1297 (3353)

$1.1249 (4739)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 126170 contracts (according to data from December, 6) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (5768);

GBP/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.2905 (2262)

$1.2861 (1364)

$1.2824 (1803)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.2766

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.2731 (1314)

$1.2693 (2985)

$1.2648 (2005)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 7 is 59073 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (4702);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 7 is 47247 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2900 (3198);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.80 versus 0.80 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 6

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

• OPEC to Debate Figures With Non-OPEC Producers on Friday

• Saudi Energy Min: 'Not Confident' OPEC and Allies Will Reach Production-Cut Agreement on Friday

• OPEC Is Debating Oil Production Cut of 1Mln B/D

• Most Canadian Data in Last 6-8 Weeks on Disappointing Side

• Thursday's Canadian Trade Data A 'Positive Surprise'

• Won't Really Know What Neutral Rate Is 'Until We're There'

• Every Reason to Think We're Headed for Stronger Business Investment

• Don't Think Markets Have Embraced Idea That Tariffs Represent Enhanced Inflation Risk

• Neutral Is Where We Want to Be

• Not Seeing Clear Signs of Overheating Economy, Nor Material Weakening

• U.S. Economy 'Beset by Increasing Uncertainties'

• Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela Aren't on Board With the Final OPEC Deal

• 'There Is a Lot of Discontent in the Room'

• Saudis, Emiratis Responsible for Price Crash, Need to Bear Brunt of Oil Cuts

• Fed Could Adopt a New Wait-and-See Approach on Rates in 2019

• Fed's Evolving Rate Strategy Could Mean Skipping Increases at More Meetings

Statement from China: “The teams of both sides are now having smooth communications and good cooperation with each other. We are full of confidence that an agreement can be reached within the next 90 days.” I agree!.

In October 2018, production in industry was down by 0.5% from the previous month on a price, seasonally and calendar adjusted basis according to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The revised figure shows an increase of 0.1% (primary +0.2%) from September 2018.

In October 2018, production in industry excluding energy and construction was down by 0.4%. Within industry, the production of capital goods increased by 0.3% and the production of intermediate goods by 0.2%. The production of consumer goods showed a decrease of 3.2%. Outside industry, energy production was down by 3.2% in October 2018 and the production in construction decreased by 0.3%.