Tin tức thì trường

• Foreign travelers who provide proof that they are fully vaccinated before boarding a flight will be able to fly to U.S. starting in “early November” 
• Fully vaccinated travelers will also need to show proof of a negative test for the coronavirus within three days before coming to U.S.
• Unvaccinated Americans overseas aiming to travel home will have to clear stricter testing requirements: they will need to test negative for the coronavirus one day before traveling to U.S. and will need to be tested again after arriving

FXStreet economists at Rabobank do not expect the pound to enjoy considerable gains following the BoE's rate decision, as the market is likely coming to terms with diminishing expectations that the MPC could project a more confident tone.

“Given our expectation that the USD is likely to remain on the front foot in the coming months, we are becoming less confident that the pound can achieve our long-held target of EUR/GBP 0.84 by year-end. In turn, our three-month GBP/USD 1.39 forecast may prove out of reach for the pound.”

“Despite the wave of hawkish speculation that was triggered by the sharp increase in August CPI inflation release (to 3.2% YoY), we remain reluctant to forecast an increase in the Bank’s policy rate until 2023."

“In August the Bank’s guidance stated that ‘some modest tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period is likely to be necessary’. We expect that the appointment of Huw Pill as the Bank’s new Chief Economist means that there will be a majority in favour of this guidance this month. While it is likely that GBP could find initial support on such a headline, we would not construe such news as hawkish on its own.” 

“Without some strong evidence of a shift towards a hawkish tone from the MPC, we would expect any initial GBP gains following the BoE meeting to lose steam.”

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) announced on Monday its housing market index (HMI) came in at 76 in September, up from 75 in August. This marked the first increase since May.

Economists had forecast the HMI to drop to 74.

A reading over 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Two of three HMI components recorded gain this month. The indicator gauging current sales conditions went up one point to 82, and the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers increased 2 points to 61. Meanwhile, the measure charting sales expectations in the next six held steady at 81.

NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke noted: “Builder sentiment has been gradually cooling since the HMI hit an all-time high reading of 90 last November. The September data show stability as some building material cost challenges ease, particularly for softwood lumber. However, delivery times remain extended and the chronic construction labor shortage is expected to persist as the overall labor market recovers.”

Meanwhile, NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said: “The single-family building market has moved off the unsustainably hot pace of construction of last fall and has reached a still hot but more stable level of activity, as reflected in the September HMI. While building material challenges persist, the rate of cost growth has eased for some products, but the job openings rate in construction is trending higher.”

FXStreet reports that analysts at Credit Suisse think that AUD/USD is likely to continue lower now. A break below 0.7220 would open up a test of major long-term supports which start at 0.7118/06.

“Next support is seen at a corrective price low at 0.7226/20, below which would open up a test of much more major support starting at 0.7118/06, which is the ‘neckline’ to a major potential top and stretching down through 0.7053 to 0.6991. This area includes the 38.2 retracement of the 2020/21 rise and the major November 2020 price low.” 

“First resistance moves to 0.7317/23, then 0.7347, above which would negate the recent bearish ‘outside day’ and help to stabilize the market.”

U.S. stock-index futures tumbled on Monday, as growing worries about a potential default of China’s property developer Evergrande and its implications for the country’s economy added to growth concerns, bolstering selloff in riskier assets ahead of a crucial meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve later this week.

Global Stocks:

FXStreet reports that as a follow-up of the immediate spillover effect of Evergrande, strategists at Natixis focus on China’s real estate sector and analyze the future implications.

“We expect more private and small real estate developers to fall with tighter regulations and weaker profit generation, especially for the firms with high leverage.”

“A key question is whether the fall of Evergrande will trigger a domino effect and pose systemic risks. The answer is systemic risks will be avoided in the run-up to the 2022 Party Congress given its historical importance. However, this would also imply China Evergrande's debt crisis may snowball down the road considering economic growth will not be here to awash financial losses as was the case in the past.”

“The most likely scenario is Evergrande may be forced to sell assets at a discounted price.”

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

Salesforce (CRM) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; target $325

FXStreet notes that EUR/USD has removed support at 1.1757/26 to turn the spotlight back on major support at 1.1695. According to analysts at Credit Suisse, sustained move below here should finally establish a large “head and shoulders” top to expose support at 1.1495.

“Key support remains seen at the 38.2% retracement of the 2020/2021 uptrend at 1.1695, a clear and closing break below which (ideally on a weekly basis) should confirm a major top. Assuming we then also see the 1.1663 August low removed, which would be our base case we would look for a more meaningful turn lower with support seen next at 1.1612/04 and eventually back at 1.1495/93.” 

USD rose against most of its major rivals in the European session on Monday, as worries about a potential default of the Chinese property developer Evergrande added to market concerns, bolstering demand for safe-haven currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, increased  0.20% to 93.38.

Evergrande faces $150 million in coupon payments later this week, but fears grew that the property developer won't be able to make these payments and this could spark broader risks in China’s financial system.

In addition, markets await the two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve, which will begin tomorrow and can provide clues on stimulus withdrawal by the U.S. central bank. It is widely expected that at their September gathering the Fed officials will confirm their plans to start QE tapering by the end of the year but will hold off providing details or a timeline for a month or two.

• We will be very careful in phasing out stimulus

FXStreet reports that economists at Société Générale see no signals of AUD/USD rebound at the current levels.

“Short-term support levels are at 0.7190 and August low of 0.7110.”

“Overcoming 50-DMA at 0.7350 is essential to denote short-term bounce.”

• As inflation outlook brightens, when asset purchases end is more important
• Less important is how much central bank buys or when reduction of purchases begin
• Stock of asset purchases provides substantial, persistent policy stimulus
• But there may be a point where positive effects of QE could even reverse
• Forward guidance cannot fully substitute asset purchases

FXStreet notes that USD/CHF is approaching the 2019-2020 downtrend at 0.9337. Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, expects the pair to run out of steam at this mark.

“USD/CHF has rallied into 5-month highs following the break above the 0.9274 July high. Directly above here lies the 2019-2020 downtrend at 0.9337, where we suspect that the market will struggle.”

“The pair will have to slide back below the 55-day ma at 0.9168 to alleviate immediate upside pressure.”

FXStreet notes that these are good times for natural gas producers, which could extend into next year. Thus, the risks to Bank of Montreal's (BMO) annual average forecast for Henry Hub of $3.50 for 2021 and $3.00 for 2022 remain skewed towards the upside.

“Henry Hub has surged above $5.00/mmbtu, which is adding further fuel to the commodity supercycle debate. We do not think prices will remain at current levels for an extended period though they are unlikely to return to the pre-pandemic lows when it appeared as if the world was awash with natural gas.”

“We expect temporary/weather-related factors, namely the global heatwave and the impact of Hurricane Ida, which have been largely responsible for the surge in price since early June, to ease. However, better weather, assuming the winter does not make an early arrival or prove to be colder than normal, may not pull the rug out from under the feet of Henry Hub due to effectively flat domestic production and, moreover, robust overseas demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG).”

“Looking beyond the impact of weather and lower-than-normal inventories, European LNG demand should remain steady from a medium-term perspective, supported by the planned retirement of a large number of coal and nuclear power generation plants.”

“There is rising global competition for LNG, and it may persist in the short-term. However, there appears to be a limit to how much higher LNG prices could rise as there are rumours that Japan is considering reigniting oil-fired power plants, while the UK actually restarted an old coal-fired power plant earlier in the month.”

FXStreet suggests that EUR/USD threatens return below 1.17. Economists at Société Générale expect the pair to test the August low of 1.1665.

“EUR/USD is looking vulnerable for a retest of the summer low of 1.1665 if it fails to defend 1.1690.”

“It would be interesting to see if it can carve out a higher trough as compared to the one in August 

FXStreet reports that strategists at Société Générale expect to see higher Treasury yields. 

“Daily MACD has entered positive territory which points towards potential upside.” 

“The bounce could extend towards projections of 1.45%/1.46% with the next hurdle at 1.63%. Consolidation above the recent low at 1.26% would be important for further up move.”

Reuters reports that U.S. and European companies have marked another milestone in their road to recovery from COVID-19, seeing their debt levels relative to profits tumbling to the lowest since before the pandemic erupted in 2020.

Net leverage, an important gauge of a company's financial health, refers to net debt as a proportion of EBITDA.

At U.S. companies rated investment-grade, it fell in the second quarter to the lowest since 2018, according to BNP Paribas, while European leverage is the lowest since 2019.

The trend is a good sign for corporate debt markets, where the lowest-rated segments are outperforming this year, signalling normalising credit quality.

Earnings at S&P 500 and STOXX 600 companies are already some 40% above pre-pandemic levels, according to Refinitiv, with the vast majority of companies beating forecasts.

Leverage has fallen fastest at U.S. firms with "junk" credit ratings, or below the BBB- threshold, where it is nearly at pre-pandemic levels, BNP's data shows.

FXStreet reports that economists at MUFG Bank said that the US Dollar Index could reach new highs in case the DOTs surprise to the upside.

“Market participants are understandably wary of the Fed delivering another hawkish surprise like in June when the Fed last updated their projections for the Fed Funds rates, which is encouraging a stronger US dollar.”

“We do not expect the Fed to announce their QE taper plans this week but we do expect Chair Powell to repeat that if the ‘economy evolved broadly as anticipated, it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year’.

“If the DOTs confirm a median hike in 2022 that would illicit the biggest FX reaction with the DXY likely to trade at new year to date highs. A 2022 median DOT would clearly undermine Powell’s attempts to break any link between tapering and rate hikes.” 

CNBC reports that when influential German Chancellor Angela Merkel leaves office after the country’s upcoming federal election, many political pundits will be keeping an eye on France.

That’s because experts think that President Emmanuel Macron is waiting in the wings for an opportunity to try to replace Germany as Europe’s de facto leader.

Macron is likely to attempt to become Europe’s central figurehead once Merkel leaves, analysts say, and has been positioning himself to achieve that for a while.

“As regards Macron, we already see tentative attempts to take leadership in Europe,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, said.

He pointed to “Macron’s interventions when it comes to European debates on fiscal rules.” France has called for the EU to relax rules regarding member states’ budget deficits and debt-to-GDP levels, particularly in light of the coronavirus pandemic, while Germany has traditionally opposed any loosening of the rules.

FXStreet reports that economists at Natixis believe that growth in China will slow down significantly in the medium-term.

“Chinese growth is expected to slow as a result of: Population ageing; The shift in the capital structure to low-productive capital (in construction), as opposed to capital in capital goods; The decline in productivity gains, first of all due to the fact that it has now almost caught up with the lag in corporate modernisation; Excessive debt , which will amplify the fall in growth due to other causes; The difficulty and cost of the energy transition, from a situation where the weight of coal in electricity production is very high, and therefore where CO2 emissions are enormous.”

“In the recent period, there has been increasing state intervention in the functioning of private companies in China. These interventions explain the decline in stock market indices in China. There is concern because of the low efficiency of state-owned enterprises in China, which is well known, and because a weakening of private companies and a growing role for state-owned enterprises would result in a slowdown in productivity and total factor productivity.”

Bloomberg reports that according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the backdrop of interest rates remaining low to aid slowing economic growth supports maintaining longer-term positions in high quality, secular growth stocks.

“The persistently low overall level of interest rates that our economists expect, and their forecast for real GDP growth that should decelerate to a below-trend pace of 1.5% by the end of next year, should continue to support profitable long duration stocks with high quality attributes,” Goldman strategists wrote in a note. 

Goldman strategists favor shares with good profit margins and stable earnings over the longer term such as Tesla Inc., Uber Technologies Inc. and Netflix Inc., according to a note. Short-duration stocks including eBay Inc., Cigna Corp. and Kraft Heinz Co. should tactically outperform if rates rise, they said.

FXStreet reports that in the view of economists at MUFG Bank, there is a high hurdle for the BoE to provide a hawkish policy surprise which should help dampen further GBP upside in near-term. 

“We believe that there is greater risk of disappointment which could trigger a temporary correction lower for the GBP. We expect the BoE to mainly stick to the policy message from August when they formally adopted a gradual tightening bias. We expect the BoE to acknowledge that Q3 GDP growth is likely to be weaker than expected (2.9%)”.

“The combination of slower growth and higher inflation creates a less favourable mix for the GBP, and with BoE rate hike expectations already well priced in for the next year. A stronger hawkish signal from the BoE will be required for the GBP to break through key resistance levels.”

CNBC reports that U.S. government debt prices were higher on Monday as investors gear up for a new Fed meeting.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped 2 basis points to 1.35% and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell 2.2 basis points to 1.888%.

Investors are looking ahead to a new Fed meeting, with Chairman Jerome Powell due to speak on Wednesday.

Powell has previously said the central bank could start lifting monetary stimulus before the end of the year and investors will be looking for clues about the tapering process.

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar rose against the euro and the pound, but declined against the yen.

Traders' attention this week is focused on the meeting of the Federal Reserve System( Fed), at which the Central Bank is expected to shed light on the future of the quantitative easing (QE) program. The Federal Reserve has been buying assets worth $120 billion a month since June 2020 as part of this program, and experts are waiting for clear signals from it about when the Central Bank intends to start winding it down. Many believe that the Fed may begin reducing the monthly volume of asset repurchases as early as November.

Following the results of the meeting on September 21-22, the Federal Reserve will publish fresh forecasts for GDP, unemployment and inflation in the United States, as well as a dot plot  - a chart reflecting the individual expectations of members of the Fed Board of governors and heads of federal Reserve banks regarding interest rates.

The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), rose by 0.17%.

Reuters reports that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen issued a fresh plea for Congress to raise the federal debt ceiling.

Yellen said that the crisis triggered by a default would compound the damage from the continuing coronavirus pandemic, roiling markets and plunging the U.S. economy back into recession at the cost of millions of jobs and a lasting hike in interest rates.

Yellen did not offer a new timeline for a possible default, but described economic damage that would fall on consumers through higher borrowing costs and lower asset prices.

She has said previously that a default could come during October when the Treasury exhausts its cash reserves and extraordinary borrowing capacity under the $28.4 trillion debt limit.

"We can borrow more cheaply than almost any other country, and defaulting would jeopardize this enviable fiscal position. It would also make America a more expensive place to live, as the higher cost of borrowing would fall on consumers," Yellen wrote. "Mortgage payments, car loans, credit card bills—everything that is purchased with credit would be costlier after default."

FXStreet reports that Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses its expectations for September FOMC policy meeting.

"We think that the FOMC may be only a month or so away from announcing QE taper and think that the updated staff economic projections and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference would convey the message that the US recovery is becoming more durable. In addition, the updated Fed ‘dot plot’ would be scrutinised for any signs of more aggressive monetary tightening in the medium- to long-run. We think that the market impact from the meeting this week will depend on how investors perceive any signal that cautious policy normalisation is on the way," CACIB notes.

According to the report from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in August 2021, the index of producer prices for industrial products increased by 12.0% compared with August 2020. This was the highest increase compared to the corresponding month of the preceding year since December 1974 (+12.4%), when prices rose strongly during the first oil crisis. Economists had expected a 11.4% increase. Compared with the preceding month July 2021 the overall index rose by 1.5% in August 2021. Economists had expected a 0.8% increase.

Mainly responsible for the increase of producer prices compared to August 2020 were the prices of energy followed by intermediate products. Energy prices as a whole were up 24.0% compared to August 2020 and by 3.3 compared to July 2021. Mainly responsible for the high rise of energy prices were the strong increase regarding natural gas (distribution).

Prices of intermediate goods increased by 17.1% compared to August 2020. Compared to July 2021 these prices were up 1.4 %. Compared to August 2020 intermediate goods’ prices increased especially regarding sawn timber (+124%) and metallic secondary raw materials (+104%) as well as wooden packaging materials (+89.4%) and reinforcing steel in bars (+87.2%). 

Prices of durable consumer goods increased by 2.8% compared to August 2020, mainly caused by the price development of furniture (+3.9%). Prices of non-durable consumer goods increased by 2.1% compared to August 2020 and rose by 0.2% compared to July 2021. From August 2020 to August 2021 food prices increased by 2.6%.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1869 (2402)

$1.1834 (837)

$1.1805 (395)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1715

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1694 (3337)

$1.1665 (3268)

$1.1629 (1134)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 8 is 65990 contracts (according to data from September, 17) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (8409);

GBP/USD

$1.3925 (1088)

$1.3854 (484)

$1.3826 (162)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3709

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3685 (1777)

$1.3663 (954)

$1.3636 (1070)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 8 is 11853 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4150 (2072);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 8 is 14389 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (1777);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.21 versus 1.21 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 17

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.