Tin tức thì trường

• The Chinese company was to make $83.5 million in coupon payments by September 23 on U.S. dollar bonds
• Evergrande could make the payments belatedly 
• It has a 30-day grace period before bondholders can call a default

eFXdata reports that analysts at TD Research offer their outlook for USD in light of this week's September policy decision.

"We think the Fed's shift to a faster taper pace plus early November start will likely diminish the USD's downside risks through the later parts of 2022. In other words, the USD probably doesn't have as much downside as we anticipated, yet the next likely move through late 2021 and early 2022 is lower."

"Given our call for a Fed hike in late 2023, that probably won't be seen until late Q2/early Q3 next year. Behind the scenes lies the outlook for the global economy, which is arguably more important than the Fed over the next three to six months. The result is that the USD will likely make another run lower, probably revisiting levels near the lows seen in May. A light form of reflation and mispriced themes would offer the spark." 

The U.S. Commerce Department announced on Friday that the sales of new single-family homes rose 1.5 percent m-o-m to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 740,000 units in August. This was the highest reading since April.

Economists had forecast the sales pace of 714,000 last month.

July’s sales pace was revised up to 729,000 units from the originally reported 708,000 units.

According to the report, new home sales in the South, the largest area, increased 6.0 percent m-o-m in August, while those in the Northeast surged 26.1 percent m-o-m and in the West rose 1.4 percent m-o-m. In the meantime, new home sales in the Midwest plunged 31.1 percent m-o-m.

The report also showed that median sales price climbed 20.1 percent y-o-y to $390,900.

In y-o-y terms, new home sales were down 24.3 percent in August.

• Return to normal should allow continued growth and moderating inflation but some changes from pandemic may persist
• Fed will face a complicated discussion about the size of the balance sheet after taper
• Impact of balance sheet on longer-term rates will be an influence on Fed decisions about changes to target federal funds rate
  

FXStreet economists at Credit Suisse expect USD/JPY to break above the 110.81 August high for a test of long-term resistance.

“With US yields having completed near-term bases and expected to rise further we look for a break above the August high at 110.81 to add further momentum to the rally for a test on long-term resistance, starting at 111.66 and stretching up to 112.40.” 

“Whilst the 112.40 resistance should continue to be respected, an eventual break would now see a much more important and large base complete to signal a more sustained change of trend higher.”

U.S. stock-index futures fell on Friday, as investors decided to take a breather after a strong rebound rally earlier this week. The market sentiment was also partly dampened by renewed worries about the fate of the Chinese property developer Evergrande and concerns over supply chain disruptions, which heightened after Nike (NKE) issued downside revenue guidance, citing supply chain issues.

Global Stocks:

(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)

• Sees conditions for rate liftoff met by the end of 2022
• Says inflation risks on the upside exceed those on the negative
• Inflation will be a little more than 2% over the next couple of years
• Sees 5.5% GDP growth this year and 3.75-4.0% growth next year
• Sees unemployment around 4.75% at the end of this year and 4.0% at the end of 2022
• After liftoff, we'll need accommodative policy for a little while
• I support starting to dial back our purchases in November and concluding them over the first half of next year
  

FXStreet reports that economists at Credit Suisse see GBP/USD strength is set to stay capped at 1.3755/65 for a retest of key range support at 1.3601/1.3567. 

“We continue to look for the 13-day exponential average and price resistance at 1.3755/65 to try and cap further strength with support seen at 1.3694/90 initially, ahead of 1.3633 and then 1.3609/01.”

“An eventual move below 1.3571/67 would resolve the range lower for the completion of a bearish “triangle” continuation pattern. We would then look for a more meaningful decline with support seen initially at 1.3520/15, the December 2019 high, then the ‘neckline’ to the 2019/2020 base at 1.3451/36.”

“Big picture, we would see scope for an eventual fall to a cluster of supports including the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2020/2021 bull trend at 1.3189/35.”

Barrick (GOLD) initiated with a Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Cisco (CSCO) initiated with a Hold at WestPark Capital

Salesforce (CRM) target raised to $328 from $300 at Monness Crespi & Hardt

Salesforce (CRM) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler; target raised to $365

USD rose against other major currencies in the European session on Friday, as renewed worries about the fate of the Chinese property developer Evergrande raised the demand for safe-haven currencies.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the U.S. currency's value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, increased 0.23% to 93.30.

Evergrande bondholders have not received an $83.5 million dollar-bond debt payment that was due Thursday, September 23, and the company entered a 30-day grace period before a default is triggered. The Chinese authorities did not signal that they would provide support to the company to meet its obligations for foreign creditors. Thus, the fate of one of China's largest real estate developers remains uncertain, reigniting worries about the systemic risks its potential collapse poses to the country's financial system and globally.

In addition, market participants are pricing in a potential interest rate increase by the end of 2022. The  Fed's latest "dot plot" showed that half of the FOMC members now see the first interest rate hike in 2022. The U.S. central bank’s chairman Jerome Powell also signaled that the Fed could begin scaling back its bond purchases in November and end the process by mid-2022.

FXStreet reports that Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, suggests that cable’s recovery faces initial resistance at 1.3726/34.

“GBP/USD saw quite a recovery yesterday from the 1.3557/78 July low, February low and long term Fibo, which suggests a reluctance to break down at this stage.”

“Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.3726/34 8th September low.”

“The 1.3571/57 low is key and a break below here would represent a big break down point and would target the 1.3504 January 2009 low and introduce scope to the 200-week ma at 1.3160.”

FXStreet reports that Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley, explains why two D.C. policy items - the bipartisan infrastructure framework and debt ceiling deliberations - could add one more complication for equities markets.

“This vote is a key test for whether or not the Democrats will be able to 'go big' on fiscal policy. At the moment, it's far from clear that the BIF can get enough votes to pass on its own, meaning the 'all or nothing' dynamic on fiscal policy remains intact. But if the BIF succeeds, that would suggest a smaller fiscal package, smaller deficit impact, and a key challenge to our view that bond yields will rise meaningfully into year-end.”

“While we ultimately expect these issues to be resolved in a manner that doesn't materially impact the US growth outlook, the path to resolution on these issues likely requires escalated uncertainty in the near term... ...headlines around a government shutdown should pick up, and with it the takes that the situation increases the risk that the debt ceiling can't be raised in a timely manner.”

Costco (COST) reported Q4 FY 2021 earnings of $3.90 per share (versus $3.13 per share in Q4 FY 2020), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $3.54 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $61.440 bln (+17.5% y/y), roughly in line with analysts’ consensus estimate of $61.452 bln.

COST rose to $456.00 (+0.71%) in pre-market trading.

FXStreet notes that the consensus is that growth in 2022 will be vigorous. However, economists at Natixis think we should not be overly positive about 2022 growth in the U.S. and the eurozone.

"Positive factors for growth in 2022:"

• "The possibility that the significant savings that have been built up may be partially spent, especially as wealth effects are very positive."
• "The upturn in corporate profitability, which may favour an upturn in corporate investment."
• "The stabilisation or even slight fall in commodity prices.”

• "Fiscal deficits will be far smaller than in 2021, despite the stimulus packages being implemented. The level of fiscal deficits in the United States and the euro zone will still be very high in 2022, but much lower than in 2021, which will reduce growth."
• "Real wages are falling in 2021 due to the surge in inflation on the back of the sharp rise in commodity prices, which, ceteris paribus, will dent households’ consumption capacity in 2022."
• "Companies’ hiring difficulties may curb the recovery in employment and therefore in production."
• "Monetary policies are likely to become more restrictive... The prospect of this development could drive up risk premia, which would obviously be negative for growth.”

NIKE (NKE) reported Q1 FY 2022 earnings of $1.16 per share (versus $0.95 per share in Q1 FY 2021), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $1.12 per share.

The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $12.248 bln (+15.6% y/y), missing analysts’ consensus estimate of $12.473 bln.

NKE fell to $152.35 (-4.53%) in pre-market trading.

• Financial institutions and non-bank payment institutions are not allowed to offer services related to virtual currencies
• Overseas crypto exchanges must not provide services to mainland investors
• Workers of foreign crypto exchanges will be investigated
  
• We will strengthen monitoring of risks from cryptocurrency trading
• We will strengthen management of information on internet about cryptocurrencies
• We will severely punish illegal financing activities related to cryptocurrencies

FXStreet reports that Terence Wu, FX Strategist at OCBC bank, expects the aussie to edge lower to test the 0.7200 level.

“The AUD/USD will be a barometer of Evergrande risks in the near term. Positives have taken it higher, but note that the 0.7300/20 key resistance zone has not been breached, implying that the downside bias is not fully averted.”

“Evergrande aside, the underlying risk-off bias is perhaps more sustained. Prefer to stay the course, looking for downside tests of 0.7200.”

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) reported on Friday its latest survey of retailers showed retail sales volume balance plunged to +11 in the year to September from +60 in August. This was the lowest reading since March.

Economists had forecast the reading to drop to +35.

The report also revealed that retail sales volumes were expected to grow at a quicker rate next month (+29). Meanwhile, overall sales were seen as poor for the time of year in September (-11 from +26) and were expected to be broadly average for the time of year in October (-2). In other survey results, the retail orders balance increased at a slower pace in the year to September (+20 from +68 in August) and was seen to rise at a slightly faster pace in October (+24). Stock levels in relation to expected sales were seen as too low for the fifth consecutive month in September, albeit to a lesser extent than last month (-11 from -21), and were forecast to remain too low next month (-13).

“Demand cooled for retailers in the year to September after running red hot over the summer, pushing sales below seasonal norms for the first time since March. But volumes are expected to return to more typical levels for the time of year next month,” noted Ben Jones, CBI Principal Economist. “Low stock adequacy remains a concern across the distribution sector. Respondents to our survey have told us that they do not expect the transport and production issues that are causing these shortages to ease significantly until at least next year and, in some cases, beyond.”

FXStreet reports that analysts at Citigroup said that China’s home prices are at risk of “meaningful downside” regardless of what happens to China Evergrande Group.

“It seems clear that even in an orderly restructuring, the property sector in China is likely to face downside pressures“.

While authorities try to limit lower real estate prices due to fire sales by Evergrande by implementing price floors, price controls typically do not work".

“The fallout would be most pronounced in global commodity markets, as well as emerging-world credit and currencies,” Citigroup’s simulation-based on China’s last severe property downturn in 2014 showed.

Reuters reports that a weekly round-up by BofA showed that global equity funds saw their first outflows in 2021 as rising pessimism about U.S. President Joe Biden's spending plans triggered large outflows, while cash, government, debt and gold saw heavy inflows.

At $24.2 billion, global stock funds saw their biggest outflows since March 2020 as investors cut their equity holdings in favour of cash where they ploughed in $39.6 billion of funds. Bond funds saw inflows of $10 billion.

According to the report from National statistics institute ISTAT, morale amongst Italian businesses slipped for a second month running in September but consumer confidence jumped to its highest level for more than 23 years.

In September 2021, the consumer confidence index rose from 116.2 to 119.6. The improvement was particularly evident in the economic climate that surged, in fact, from 132.4 to 143.6. However, the other index components also increased: the current one rose from 112.0 to 116.1, the future one improved from 122.5 to 124.7 and, finally, the personal one bettered from 110.8 to 111.5.

As for the business confidence climate, the index slipped from 114.0 to 113.8.

The confidence index in manufacturing diminished from 113.2 to 113.0. The confidence index in construction rose from 153.8 to 155.5. The market services confidence index improved from 111.8 to 112.3. The retail trade confidence index went down from 113.6 to 106.8. The deterioration in confidence did not characterise both distribution channels: the index clearly dropped in the large scale distribution (from 118.5 to 109.3), but it showed a slight improvement in the small and medium scale one (from 101.9 to 102.3).

FXStreet reports that economists at MUFG Bank are discussing the possible results of the Germany election.

“A ‘traffic-light’ coalition comprising of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP seems most likely but the TV debate last night revealed policy differences between the Greens and the SPD on issues covering China and Nord Stream and energy supply in general so it seems likely that similar to previous recent elections, it could take considerable time before we have a new government.”

“A shift to the left with Die Linke doing better than expected that points to a possible coalition with the SPD and the Greens would perhaps be the biggest surprise and could result in the initial focus being on more expansionary fiscal policy with a slower return to fiscal discipline. All the most likely scenarios do suggest some level of growth-orientated policies being put into action which should help reinforce the favourable macroeconomic outlook in the eurozone that is currently being helped by the roll-out of NGEU fiscal spending, which got underway in August.”

According to the report from IFO, the German IFO Business Climate Index worsened to 98.8 in September versus last month's 99.4 and the consensus estimates of 98.9.

Meanwhile, the Current Economic Assessment arrived at 100.4 points as compared to last month's 101.4 and 101.8 anticipated.

The IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months, dropped to 97.3 in September from the previous month’s 97.5 reading. Economists had expected a decrease to 96.5.

Following the release, the IFO’s Economist Klaus Wohlrabe said that “supply shortages in industry sector worsened in September.”

"No sign that shortages will ease. Supply crisis to last until at least end of the year. Upward trend in construction sector continues". - Wohlrabe said.

FXStreet reports that Stephanie Aliaga, Global Market Analyst at JP Morgan, continues to expect yields to grind higher through the end of the year. 

“The FOMC sent a slightly hawkish signal to markets on its monetary policy outlook, recognizing that the delta variant has slowed economic progress, but also that inflation may prove somewhat stickier than they previously assumed.”

“The statement and projections reflect the committee’s view that the economy has made significant progress towards its goals and receding pandemic effects should allow progress to continue more rapidly in 2022, while also acknowledging more persistently higher inflation than previously forecasted.”

“ We continue to expect yields will grind higher through the end of the year and strong economic growth accompanied by still relatively accommodative monetary policy will provide support to equity markets.”

During today's Asian trading, the US dollar fell against the major currencies, but remained above the weekly low reached yesterday. The yen fell to its lowest level since mid-August, as treasury yields hit their highest level since early July.

The ICE index, which tracks the dynamics of the dollar against six currencies (euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), fell by 0.30%

The safe-haven dollar suffered after Beijing poured new money into the financial system on Thursday, when Evergrande announced that it would pay interest on the mainland bond. However, some offshore bondholders said they did not receive coupon payments before the deadline on Thursday. Additional interest on dollar-denominated bonds is due to be paid next week.

Hawkish comments from the Bank of England on Thursday lifted yields around the world, a day after the US Federal Reserve said it could start reducing monthly bond purchases as early as November, and interest rates could rise faster than expected by next year.

The Bank of England said that two of its politicians voted to stop buying government bonds as soon as possible, and the markets postponed their expectations of an interest rate increase to March.

Westpac believes that the dollar index will grow slightly by the end of the year, but in the near future it will remain in the range of 92.0–93.5.

FXStreet reports that Standard Chartered’s Chief Financial officer Andy Halford said that the Chinese economy remains on a solid footing, as the troubled Evergrande crisis is just in one of its sectors.

"Even if one sector of the Chinese economy is a little under the cosh at the moment, the generality of the growth in the Chinese economy is still very strong when compared with most other parts of the world, and as we look forward it does not dent our enthusiasm for the country" 

"No direct exposure to Evergrande and "negligible" indirect exposure."

"We need to be careful that we don't overreact, in this instance we don't have any significant exposure, the overall sectoral exposure is very modest and we're much, much less concerned than the initial market reaction.”

CNBC reports that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde believes Europe’s direct exposure to the embattled Chinese property company Evergrande would be “limited.”

Investors fear Evergrande will default on a number of bond payments this week.The company is deeply intertwined with China’s broader economy, and many financial institutions are exposed to the cash-strapped developer through direct loans and indirect holdings.

Market experts say a deepening liquidity crisis at Evergrande could send further ripples across the global economy.

Lagarde said the ECB was keeping tabs on the debt-laden property developer. “We are looking at it,” she said. “We are monitoring and I had a briefing earlier on today because I think that all financial markets are interconnected.”

“I have very vivid memories of [the] latest stock market developments in China that had a bearing across the world. But in Europe and in the euro area, in particular, direct exposure would be limited,” Lagarde said.

EUR/USD

Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)

$1.1864 (2698)

$1.1828 (830)

$1.1802 (551)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.1737

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.1713 (3338)

$1.1680 (3712)

$1.1640 (1122)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date October, 8 is 71603 contracts (according to data from September, 23) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2200 (8607);

GBP/USD

$1.3873 (435)

$1.3837 (511)

$1.3808 (159)

Price at time of writing this review: $1.3726

Support levels (open interest**, contracts):

$1.3697 (1778)

$1.3676 (956)

$1.3648 (1186)

Comments:

- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date October, 8 is 11946 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,4150 (2071);

- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date October, 8 is 15124 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3800 (1778);

- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.27 versus 1.27 from the previous trading day according to data from September, 23

* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.

** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.

Reuters reports that analysts at Nomura cut their forecast for China's annual GDP growth in 2021 to 7.7% from 8.2%, citing the impact of factories pausing operations amid power outages and environmental policies.

"Over recent weeks, a surging number of factories across China have been forced to cease operations," due to higher coal prices hitting power supplies and government mandates to meet carbon emission reduction targets, they said in a note.

This downward pressure on growth comes on top of curbs on the property sector, they added.

eFXdata reports that Barclays Research argues that while possible Evergrande default could be a significant drag on the property sector, it is far from being China's Lehman moment.

"China’s situation is very different. Not only are the property sectors’ linkages to the financial system not on the same scale as a large investment bank, but the debt capital markets are not the only, or even the primary, means of funding. The country is, to a large extent, a command-and-control economy. In an extreme scenario, even if capital markets are shut to all Chinese property firms, regulators could direct banks to lend to such firms, keeping them afloat and providing time for an extended ‘work-out’ if needed," Barclays notes.

"A prospective Evergrande default is still a serious issue. But, we think, the effects are primarily on growth, and unlikely to be exacerbated by a financial crisis, " Barclays adds.