Tin tức thì trường

• Gold Price surges above the $2,000 mark for the first time since May 2023.
• US Core PCE came in at 3.7% YoY in September vs. 3.8% prior, matching consensus.
• The escalating geopolitical risks might benefit the safe-haven asset like gold.
• Traders await the US CB Consumer Confidence ahead of the Fed policy meeting on Wednesday.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to the $2,003 psychological mark during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The yellow metal rose above the $2,000 psychological round mark for the first time since May as the elevated geopolitical tensions boosted the safe-haven flows demand.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), the value of the USD relative to a basket of global currencies, hovers around 106.60 after retracing from 106.90. The upbeat US economic data on Friday fails to boost the US Dollar (USD) and lends support to the US Dollar-denominated Gold price

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed on Friday that the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), came in at 3.7% YoY in September from the previous reading of 3.8%, matching the market expectation. On a monthly basis, the figure rose to 0.3% versus 0.1% prior and in line with the market consensus. Meanwhile, September's headline PCE Price Index arrived at 3.4% YoY versus the expected 3.4%.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to leave rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. However, the higher for longer rate narratives in the US might cap the upside of gold price. It's worth noting that rising interest rates raise the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding assets, implying a negative outlook for precious metals.

Rising geopolitical risks triggered risk aversion and benefits to safe-haven assets like gold. On Thursday, the US carried out airstrikes targeting two facilities related to Iranian-backed militias in eastern Syria, following a series of drone and rocket attacks against US forces in the region. That being said, risk sentiment offset headwinds from the USD dynamic and bond markets.

Looking ahead, gold traders await US CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the Fed policy meeting will be announced and the market is expecting the central bank to maintain the rate unchanged. These events could give a clear direction to the gold price.

The US carried out airstrikes targeting two facilities related to Iranian-backed militias in eastern Syria on Thursday following a series of drone and rocket attacks against US forces in the region, according to CNN. 

The Biden administration has previously carried out operations against militias, but at this moment of great tension, the US wants to send a clear message to Iran and the militias not to intensify their attacks and cause a larger battle in the Middle East. The region is on edge as the Israel-Hamas conflict, sparked by Hamas’ brutal terror attack on October 7 and the tension is still continues.

Market reaction

At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is adding 0.03% on the day to trade at 106.61.

• AUD/USD holds positive ground around 0.6339 in early Monday. 
• US Core PCE eased to 3.7% YoY vs. 3.8% prior, the headline PCE remain unchanged at 3.4%.
• Markets anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise the cash rate at its meeting on November 7.
• The Fed rate decision this week will be a closely watched event. 

The AUD/USD pair kicks off the week in a positive mood below the mid-0.6300s during the early Asian session on Monday. The softer US Dollar (USD) lends some support to the pair. However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might trigger risk-aversion in the market and drag riskier assets like the Australia Dollar (AUD) lower. The pair currently trade around 0.6339, up 0.06% on the day. 

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to leave rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Late last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that inflation is still too high, raising expectations for another rate hike by the end of the year. That being said, the higher for longer rate narratives in the US could lift the USD and act as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair. 

On Friday, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, eased to 3.7% YoY from 3.8% while the headline PCE remained unchanged at 3.4%. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Index came in better than expected at 63.8 versus 63.0 prior. However, these figures failed to boost the Greenback against its rivals. 

On the other hand, the recent Australian inflation figures were in line with policymakers' expectations and the markets anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.35% in its meeting on November 7. RBA Governor Michele Bullock commented last week that CPI was a little higher than expected, but it was about where we thought it would come. Bullock further stated that the central bank aims to slow the economy without tipping it into recession.

Apart from this, any signs of economic improvement in China also support market sentiment and might lift the China-proxy AUD this week. Market players will keep an eye on the Chinese PMI data on Tuesday. 

The monthly Australian Retail Sales for September is due later on Monday, which is expected to grow 0.3% from the previous reading of 0.2% rise. Later this week, the US CB Consumer Confidence will be released on Tuesday. The spotlight this week will be the Fed policy meeting and this event could trigger the volatility in the market. Traders will take cues from the events and find trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair.