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21.11.2013
16:40
Oil: an overview of the market situation

Oil prices have increased significantly , reaching with a high of $ 109 (Brent) and $ 96 (WTI) a barrel after a report showed that the number of applications for benefits fell more than expected , while strengthening optimism that the U.S. economy will grow . The Ministry of Labor reported

The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits last week fell by 21,000 to 323,000 , the lowest since Sept. 28 , after a revised reading last week at 344,000 (previously reported 339,000 ) . Economists had expected a fall of the rate to 333 thousand Add that to the previous week fell Veterans Day , which complicates the seasonal adjustment of the number of applications .

In addition, it was reported that the four-week average of initial claims , which smooths out weekly volatility , fell by 6,750 , from 345,250 to 338,500 .

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits , remained at 2.2% in the week ended November 9. This rate has persisted since mid-September. We add that the 57 states and territories reported an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits , and six reported decreases .

The labor market perked up in October , despite the 16-day partial " shutdown " of the federal government. If the improvement continues, the Federal Reserve may soon decide that the economy is strong enough to start closing the program of bond purchases in the amount of $ 85 billion a month.

Add that to the cost of oil also contributed words of the head of the European Central Bank , Mario Draghi , who declined to comment on the likelihood of negative interest rates on deposits .

" This idea was discussed at the last meeting on monetary policy , but so far no news in this regard is not ," said Draghi . During a press conference earlier , he reported that the bank " technically ready " to lower interest rates to negative values ​​, if required by economic conditions .

In addition, the head of the ECB noted that the recovery in the euro area continues but remains " weak, unstable and uncertain ," and until is achieved price stability , the stability of it , too, should not wait. "The risks to the economic outlook continues to be top-down ", - he added. Draghi also said that only through monetary policy can not stabilize the situation in the eurozone and called on EU governments to make some concessions in the reform program .

The price of January futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $ 95.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

January futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose $ 1.26 to $ 109.10 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

16:20
Gold: an overview of the market situation

Gold prices continued their decline yesterday , dropping to a four-month low today , which was due to speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may begin to phase out its program of monetary stimulus in the near future .

Note that the last published minutes of the last FOMC meeting showed that the Federal Reserve may cut its bond buying program , which is a monthly $ 85 billion in the coming months as the economy improves.

"In general, politicians expect that these will be in line with the forecast of the Committee , which assumes continued improvement in the labor market and, thus , ensures reduction in the pace of purchases in the coming months ", - said the minutes .

Minutes of the last meeting, show a wide debate on how to improve the clarity of his plans about holding interest rates close to zero . Politicians have not taken any decisions on these plans.

FOMC members also discussed lowering the interest rate the Fed on excess reserves , which currently stands at 0.25 percent. According to the protocol , the majority of the participants were told that a reduction in the rate can be considered at any stage , although the benefits of such a move is generally seen as a slight exception , perhaps , as a signal of political will . "

Note that the pressure on gold also helped the U.S. data , which showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits , a measure of layoffs, fell by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000 in the week ended November 16. Economists had forecast 333,000 initial claims . The value of the previous week was revised up to 344,000 from 339,000 , which was originally reported. Four-week moving average of claims , which smooths out the volatility of weekly data, fell to 338,500 .

Note that if the improvement continues, the Federal Reserve may soon decide that the economy is strong enough to start closing the program of bond purchases in the amount of $ 85 billion a month.

Meanwhile, today it was announced that the stocks SPDR Gold Trust - the largest gold exchange-traded fund in the world, fell yesterday by 2.70 tons , reaching with four and a half year low - at the level of 860.31 tons.

The cost of the December gold futures on COMEX today dropped to $ 1240.40 per ounce.

06:22
Commodities. Daily history for Nov 20’2013:

GOLD 1,243.70 -29.80 -2.34%

OIL (WTI) 93.33 -0.01 -0.01%

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